There are only four teams in the AFC that have a winning record against the New England Patriots, and one of those is the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins dominated the early years of the rivalry as one of the most dominant teams in the NFL, and while the Patriots turned the tables during the Tom Brady era, the Dolphins still picked up some interesting wins, such as the 2004 game when the Dolphins (2-11 at the time) beat the 12-1 Patriots, who were defending Super Bowl champions. In 2018, the “Miracle in Miami” saw the Dolphins win on a hook-and-ladder play in which New England tight end Rob Gronkowski, for some reason, was on the field for the last-minute defensive play. In 2019, the Dolphins beat New England in Week 17, forcing the Patriots into the wild card round of the playoffs, where they would lose at home to Tennessee. That would be Tom Brady’s last game in a Patriot uniform. Now two former Alabama quarterbacks square off in the rivalry, as New England will start rookie Mac Jones against Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. Who will prevail?
Check out our predictions for your online NFL betting.
NFL Preview: Miami at New England (Sunday, September 12)
When: Sunday, September 12, 2021, 4:25 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV: CBS
Radio: WQAM 560 AM Miami / 98.5 FM The Sports Hub Boston
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: New England -3 / O/U 43.5
Why should you bet on the Dolphins?
New England was very impressed by Mac Jones’ play in the preseason, but going to the regular season is a different animal. The Miami defense was second in touchdown passes permitted and first in interceptions last year. Their corners are elite, and their safeties don’t make mistakes. On the other side, Tua Tagovailoa has experience running an NFL offense, which should have enough balance to keep him from having to carry out heroics.
The Dolphins went 11-5 last season, so even though they missed out on the postseason, they were able to grow significantly under Brian Flores as head coach. Their offense did get stagnant at times, but one area in which Tagovailoa has grown, at least based on the preseason, is in his willingness to stand in for medium-length routes instead of hurrying to find his checkdowns. That will help the Miami offense stay on the field and move the chains.
Why should you put your money on the Patriots?
No coach prepares more effectively than does Bill Belichick, and he has had a long time to get ready for this opener. In 2020, New England beat Miami 22-11 in Week 1 — a game that, in the final analysis, was one of the key losses that kept the Dolphins out of the playoffs. That win came with Cam Newton at quarterback after a virtual off-season, so Belichick showed that he can prepare a team no matter what the circumstances around the weeks ahead.
The Patriots have Damien Harris and James White to run the ball, and I expect a balanced, run-first approach that will take the pressure off Jones. This slower rhythm will keep the score from getting out of hand. On the defensive side of the ball, Belichick has plenty of film on Tagovailoa, so you can expect a lot of effort going into confusing the young quarterback. New England had 18 interceptions of their own last season.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
I expect a slow, grinding game, and I also expect New England to have the ball down the stretch when they need it the most…and deliver the last scoring drive. I predict a final score of New England 17, Miami 16.
NFL Betting Odds
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