Now that Super Wild Card Weekend is behind us, there are only eight teams left alive in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy. Some outcomes were more surprising than others; while many observers thought that Green Bay posed matchup problems for Dallas on offense, very few of them thought that the Dallas offense would just lie down for the Packers until it was too late to come back. The Houston Texans are an intriguing offense, but few expected Joe Flacco to throw pick-sixes on consecutive possessions and for the Cleveland pass rush to do nothing significant to disrupt C.J. Stroud. Detroit held the Rams off to get their first playoff win in three decades, and the Philadelphia Eagles continued their flameout, losing by 23 at Tampa Bay. Let’s look at each remaining team’s sports odds in the NFL Divisional Round to win the Super Bowl and discuss which ones have the best chances.
NFL Divisional Round Update: Teams with the Best Odds to Win the Super Bowl 58
| Team Odds | |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers +175 | Baltimore Ravens +275 |
| Buffalo Bills +450 | Kansas City Chiefs +800 |
| Detroit Lions +1000 | Green Bay Packers +2800 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3300 | Houston Texans +3500 |
San Francisco is the favorite for a reason. They get to host two playoff games in reasonable weather before advancing to the Super Bowl, in a domed stadium. They did lose convincingly to Baltimore at home, but the Ravens have tougher elements to go through, including cold-weather games the next two weeks, to make it to the Super Bowl in Las Vegas. The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey to key the running game; no NFL team beat the 49ers’ mark of 74 rushing plays that went for more than 10 yards. Green Bay is 29th in rushing yards permitted after first contact (906). Brock Purdy has George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyu, running routes for him, and the defense has Chase Young, Javon Hargrave and Nick Bosa getting after the passer. The 49ers also have none of the intangible problems that continue to plague Dallas and, somehow, caused the Cowboys to come out flat for a playoff game…again.
Baltimore had the other bye – and, for once, they’re entering the playoffs with a healthy quarterback and with a hot streak, having finished the season with six wins in seven contests. Since Week 11, no team has a better point margin than Baltimore does (+90). The defense posted 60 sacks, the best number in the league. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level for the first time in several seasons, and it helps that he has quality receivers this time around, with Odell Beckham Jr and Zay Flowers. I don’t see Jackson melting down like Joe Flacco did against the Houston defense.
Kansas City enters a new phase as Patrick Mahomes will appear in a road playoff game for the first time in his career. They’ve eliminated Buffalo in two of the last three seasons (last season, it was Cincinnati that did the deed), and this is a rematch of the overtime track meet from the 2021 divisional round. Mahomes isn’t unnerved by road games; he has a 38-11 road mark, the most victories by any quarterback in his first 50 away starts since 1950. However, in the Chiefs’ eight road games, Mahomes threw eight interceptions.
Buffalo is rounding into form at the right time, with a six-game winning streak going since the team sat at 6-6, on the verge of missing the playoffs. Since then, they have turned a 5% chance of winning the AFC East into a divisional title and a convincing thumping of Pittsburgh in the wild card round. The sight of Josh Allen sprinting away from the Pittsburgh secondary en route to a 52-yard touchdown run had to dishearten the Steelers – and may have disheartened the Chiefs as well. Beating Mahomes will be a lot better than stopping Mason Rudolph, though, and Mahomes loves to feast on openings in the middle of the field, where injuries at linebacker have the Bills the most vulnerable. James Cook could be the X-factor here, as he has jump-started the Buffalo running game.
Detroit has just two playoff wins since the Kennedy Administration. Now they have a chance to end another streak – if they can beat Tampa Bay at home this weekend, it will be the first time they won more than one playoff game in the same postseason since 1957 – and they won it all that year. The Lions are third in yards per play, fifth in scoring and rushing yards, and second in passing yards. In October, the Lions showed those strengths in a 20-6 win over the Buccaneers. Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has a three-game streak with multiple sacks, and he had a 33% pass rush win rate in the win over the Rams. With David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, they have a strong running game, and tight end Sam LaPorta was able to return from injury in time to help the passing game. This is a dangerous team on multiple levels – and my favorite value pick right now.
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