The third week of the 2022 NFL regular season was richly bizarre. Having just one weird safety wasn’t enough, so the league gave us two: the first involved a “butt punt” in Miami, as Dolphins punter Thomas Morstead kicked a ball off his own teammate and out of the end zone for a safety. Not to be undone, Jimmy Garoppolo dropped back to pass in his own end zone, and went back so far that his back foot touched the white line at the back…leading to two points for Denver. Russell Wilson would later lead his only clutch drive of the game to guide the Broncos to an 11-10 win. Monday night saw some more weirdness, as the Giants finally got Saquon Barkley going in the second half and took a 13-6 lead on the Cowboys, only to give up on the running game and fall, 23-16. Going into Week 4, here are the games that we think you absolutely must wager on.
NFL News: Must-Bet Games for Week 4
→Sunday, October 2
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
(1:00 pm ET, CBS)
Doug Pederson went from Super Bowl hero to has-been in an extremely short period of time in Philadelphia. In 2020, the Eagles went 4-11-1, including a bizarre season finale in which Pederson had a chance to coach his team to victory over Washington, but he had already promised Nate Sudfeld he could play quarterback for the fourth quarter, so Jalen Hurts went to the bench in an extremely competitive game. Washington held on, which meant that the Giants somehow won the NFC East. Pederson spent 2021 without a sniff of a coaching offer after that blunder, and then Jacksonville’s ownership was remiss enough to pass over Byron Leftwich, only to make Pederson the head coach.
Now, Pederson returns to the City of Brotherly Love, and both parties have benefited. The Eagles have found their new quarterback of the future (Hurts), and Pederson is already tied for fifth for all-time wins by a Jacksonville head coach – tied with Urban Meyer, no less. Now the Jaguars have a chance to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia, and make a statement for Pederson. The last time Jacksonville won three straight with two wins on the road, though, the year was 2013. They are 1-18 in their last 19 road games, but Pederson guided them to that victory. The Eagles are due for a trap game, but trap games generally don’t happen against your former head coach. Philadelphia to win and cover.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(8:20 pm ET, NBC)
A showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady promises offensive fireworks, right? Well, maybe not. Last week, Brady dueled with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, but despite the pair of future Hall of Famers calling the signals, the game had almost no offense, ending 14-12. Brady did lead the Buccaneers to a touchdown drive in the waning minutes of regulation, but then the Bucs could not convert a two-point conversion, and the Pack held on, possibly sending Rodgers to his own section of the team plane for another session of ayahuasca.
This will be Brady and Mahomes’ first meeting since Super Bowl LV, which Tampa Bay won running away. It helped that the Buccaneers were able to rush Mahomes all night long, as the Chiefs were missing both of their starting tackles. This time around, the Chiefs have the better offense, but you wouldn’t have known that watching them bumble around against the Colts on Sunday. I’m not sure why the Chiefs are the favorites on the road, but I’m also not sure why the Buccaneers couldn’t dent the same Green Bay defense that Kirk Cousins found so friendly in Week 1. Chiefs to win and cover.
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