Before we go to NFL Week 6, did you expect the Indianapolis-Jacksonville game to turn into a track meet?
We didn’t have that on our sports betting radar, but the apparently ageless Joe Flacco had an offensive duel with Trevor Lawrence.
Flacco found Alec Pierce three times – for a whopping 134 yards and a touchdown. Two of those receptions went for 45 or more yards.
Lawrence threw for more than 300 yards for the first time since last November, ending a nine-game personal losing streak.
Jaguars defensive end Travon Walker sacked Flacco three times and is on pace to notch 17 this season, which would be a personal high.
Did you also know that the Minnesota Vikings have the best record in International Series games?
They knocked off the New York Jets, 23-17, in London on Sunday morning, giving them a 4-0 mark in jolly old England.
Minnesota are now 5-0, a record that only the Kansas City Chiefs have matched to this point.
Are we heading for a rematch of Super Bowl IV, when Joe Kapp became the first Hispanic quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl for the Vikings? It’s way too early to make that prediction.
What we can do is give you some solid picks for Week 6, so let’s get started.
NFL Week 6: Must-Have Bets for Sports Bettors | Odds & Expert Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) vs Chicago Bears
When:Sunday, October 13, 9:30 am ET, NFL Network
The Jaguars are used to playing across the pond – their ownership has a vested interest in establishing a Jacksonville presence in London, which is why they play at least one game there every season and are playing two this year (this week and next week). The Bears are a young team led by a young quarterback, but Caleb Williams seems to be growing into his own as a pro quarterback.
The Bears’ defense has also helped out, leading the team to a +5 turnover differential the last two weeks. The Jaguars allow 287.8 passing yards per game, the highest total in the league, but we also saw that they can stack up the points in their 37-34 win over Indianapolis – their first victory of 2024. The Bears are becoming impressive, but they’re not as used to the London travel, and the Jaguars have made some headway.
NFL Pick: Jacksonville to cover.
^Arizona Cardinals (+5) at Green Bay Packers
When:Sunday, October 13, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
Given that the Cardinals just beat the 49ers in San Francisco, this line seems a little bit too large to me. Green Bay has been outscored, 41-17, in the first half the past two weeks, and Arizona is the kind of team that can stack up points in a hurry. Green Bay should have an edge running teh ball as the Cardinals rank just 28th in the league in rush defense. Brandon Jacobs has shown he can pound the ball for the Pack. However, Kyler Murray has found a solid connection with rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr, who already had scored four touchdowns and picks up 16.4 yards per reception.
NFL Pick: Arizona to cover.
^Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans
When:Sunday, October 13, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
The Colts are just 2-3 so far this season, but they are a hard-luck 2-3. Their five games have been decided a combined 19 points. Joe Flacco has played well since coming on for Anthony Richardson, averaging 263.5 passing yards per contest with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio.
Anthony Richardson’s oblique injury won’t keep him out forever, but you have to wonder if the Colts will ride things out with Flacco and see if a backup quarterback can get an otherwise solid team into the playoffs this time around. Tennessee comes out of the bye this week, and even though Week 5 is the earliest a bye can be, it seems to have been necessary, as the Titans have a -7 turnover differential through their first four games. Oh, and while the Colts are below .500 straight up, they are 4-1 against the spread.
NFL Pick: Indy to win and cover.
^Cleveland Browns (+8.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
When:Sunday, October 13, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
Deshaun Watson has settled four more lawsuits (23) since he came to Cleveland than he has thrown touchdown passes (19). He’s already taken 18 sacks in what is now a three-game losing streak. The Browns got torched at home by Dallas in Week 1, then went to Jacksonville and picked up a win, only to get trounced three times in a row. The Eagles come out of their bye week at just 2-2 and might get A.J. Brown (hamstring) back off the shelf. The Eagles have had a hard time with ball security (-6 turnover differential through four games).
However, even if Jalen Hurts has a turnover this week, he has the speed and arm strength to make the Cleveland pass defense look silly like Jayden Daniels did for Washington last week. The Browns are just 2-4-1 against the spread as a road dog dating back to last season, and as long as Kevin Stefanski sticks with Watson at quarterback, you can expect the Cleveland offense to struggle. He just hasn’t found his accurate touch from his successful Houston days, and he’s had plenty of chances.
NFL Pick: Philly to win and cover.
^NFL Week 6 L.A. Chargers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
When:Sunday, October 13, 4:05 pm ET, CBS
The Chargers had a Week 5 bye, which came at the right time for Joe Alt (ankle) and quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle). Denver has run off three wins in a row, permitting just 33 points combined over that stretch. They’ve also found ways to protect rookie QB Bo Nix, who not only has a three-game interception-free streak going, but he has also found the confidence to crawl veteran head coach Sean Payton for his play-calling. So it’s safe to say that Nix has arrived. The Broncos also have a five-game winning streak against the Chargers at home. The Chargers have some promise, but the Broncos have the momentum.
NFL Pick: Denver to cover.
^Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
When:Sunday, October 13, 4:25 pm ET, FOX
The Cowboys prevailed at home against the Lions last year, winning a 20-19 thriller that featured a botched ineligible receiver call against Detroit as well as some hardheaded decision making by Detroit head coach Dan Campbell. This time around, the Cowboys have a collection of retreads at running back. Rico Dowdle’s 12-yard carry against Pittsburgh last week was the longest by any Cowboys running back this season.
Aidan Hutchinson should be able to feast on Dak Prescott off the edge given the injuries to the Dallas O-line. Also, the Lions have plenty of motivation coming in after that loss last year. Since last season, Detroit is 6-1 against the spread as a road favorite.
NFL Pick: Detroit to win and cover.
^Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
When:Sunday, October 13, 4:25 pm ET, FOX
Carolina comes in at 1-4, and their four losses have come by a combined 96 points. That’s right, the Panthers are losing by a combined 3.5 touchdowns per game. Since switching quarterbacks to Andy Dalton, they have lost both games by a combined 36 points, so things aren’t getting much better.
Atlanta is 3-2 after a thrilling overtime home win over Tampa Bay, and all of their games have been decided by one score. Kirk Cousins did throw for 509 yards in that Week 5 win, and the Falcons’ defense should have a much easier time against Carolina than they did against a chippy Baker Mayfield last week.
^Receiving yards leaders through Week 5! 🏈
— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2024
(by @FedEx) pic.twitter.com/HmpM9FJdK9
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