Must-Bet NFL Week 1 Picks

We’re just about six weeks away from the opening of the 2018 NFL regular season, which means that it’s time to take a hard look at the sports betting lines for NFL Week 1. We still don’t have a lot of answers yet — will Andrew Luck and Carson Wentz be able to take the field for the Colts and Eagles, respectively? Will the Cowboys be able to get by with a bargain-rack tight end? Will Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have papered over their differences enough for the Patriots to start the season on the right foot? We have put together a list of some matchups that you should definitely wager on for the first week of the season.

Must-Bet NFL Week 1 Picks

Sigh. So it's that annual time when Twitter really hates me. But, back by *very popular* demand, here are my 2018 NFL record projections after I picked all 267 games (including Super Bowl LIII). Click for explanations: https://t.co/XlyVpcmV2t pic.twitter.com/jZ2gCEHbxZ

— Nate Davis (@ByNateDavis) July 19, 2018

Sunday, September 9

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at New Orleans, 1:00pm ET

The Buccaneers will likely start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in this game, given the suspension to Jameis Winston for his apparent misconduct with an Uber driver. New Orleans hasn’t taken the field since that shocking loss to Minnesota in the divisional playoff, when a last-second heave from Case Keenum somehow ended up as a touchdown. So the Saints have plenty of frustration to work out, and they get to do it against a backup quarterback who has never had sustained success in the league when he has had to take the field. Tampa Bay does have a stout defense, and they made a bit of a run last year to approach playoff contention. However, without Winston, their offense doesn’t have a whole lot to say for it, and the New Orleans offense can score in bunches, as we saw last year. The ageless Drew Brees looks set to return and keep building those stats. NFL Week 1 Betting Prediction: New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 13

Kansas City (+3) at L.A. Chargers, 4:05pm ET

The Pat Mahomes II Era in Kansas City begins in Carson, California, as the Chiefs begin their season taking on a Chargers team that many think could win the AFC West. Led by Joey Bosa, the Chargers’ defense took some huge strides in 2017 and led the team on a rally in the second half that almost brought them a wild-card berth. While Philip Rivers could easily slip back into that mode of throwing interceptions at just the wrong time that has plagued him for years, the fact that Kansas City will be giving their second-year quarterback the keys to the franchise may well man some jitters in the early going. On the other side of things, Mahomes has shown poise in limited action, and the Chargers have a tendency to start seasons off slowly. My thinking on this game is that Mahomes will need a game or two under his belt as the starter before he takes off with confidence, and the Chargers have the playmakers on defense to give him fits. NFL Week 1 Betting Prediction: L.A. Chargers 24, Kansas City 16

Chicago (+9) at Green Bay, 8:20pm ET

Aaron Rodgers returns from a collarbone injury to take on a Chicago Bears team that is really still trying to find its identity. Mitch Trubisky enters his second year as the starting quarterback, and he should find some room to throw the ball against a Green Bay secondary that is not elite, but the Packers do have a decent pass rush and could keep Trubisky on the run. The Packers added Jimmy Graham at tight end to give Rodgers another solid receiving option, and they return Ty Montgomery at tailback. Their offensive line has suffered from injuries the past couple of seasons but should be healthy for Week 1. This game is in prime time at Lambeau Field, and I am confident that, despite this significant line, the Packers will take care of business at home as they try to get off to a season in which they will retake the NFC North crown. NFL Week 1 Betting Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 10