Don’t miss the NFL Week 11 Action! The Miami Dolphins went to Los Angeles and used some ironclad defense to stop the Rams in a surprising 23-15 win.
That moved them to just 3-6, though, and they are 4 ½ games behind the Buffalo Bills in the division – and they’ve already lost twice to the AFC East leaders.
Getting to the playoffs is going to be difficult – entering the 2024 season, 194 teams in the Super Bowl era had opened a season 2-6, but only three had made the postseason.
Could Miami become the fourth? They have one of the easiest schedules in the league down the stretch.
In addition to Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the offense, another key contributor has been Chop Robinson, who has 16 quarterback pressures in the four games since the bye week and has a two-game streak with at least one sack.
As we head into Week 11, don’t miss our top sports betting picks.
NFL Week 11: Top Games with Odds & Expert Analysis
TNF Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
When: Thursday, November 14, 8:15 pm ET, Prime Video
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 48.5
The Washington Commanders stumbled at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, falling to 7-3 and now trailing the Philadelphia Eagles by a half-game. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been terrific on the road this year, completing 76.9% of his passes and posting a solid 7:1 TD:INT ratio. The problem for Washington may come on the ground game – the Eagles come in on a five-game winning streak and have only allowed 100 or more yards on the ground once in that streak. The duo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts will likely be too much for the Washington defense to handle.
NFL Pick: Eagles to win and cover.
^Green Bay Packers (-6) at Chicago Bears
When: Sunday, November 17, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 42
This was a lot more intriguing situation a few weeks ago, before the Chicago O-line fell apart and Caleb Williams had to spend games running for his life. Williams has been sacked 18 times over the last three games, but the Packers haven’t been getting after the quarterback that much lately. The Bears haven’t done well against the run, so expect Packers tailback Josh Jacobs to get a lot of carries. Green Bay comes in off a bye week after a tough home loss to Detroit. I expect to see the Packers work out some frustrations at Soldier Field.
NFL Pick: Packers to win and cover.
^Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans
When: Sunday, November 17, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 39.5
Warning sign for Minnesota fans: quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown five interceptions over the last two games, and now the Vikings lead the league with 15 interceptions. However, the Titans have also had ball security issues and rank 31st in the NFL with an -11 turnover ratios. Justin Jefferson has gone three weeks without a touchdown. The Minnesota offense looked very pedestrian against a Jacksonville defense that isn’t all that mystifying last week. The Titans are an opportunistic team that will take advantage of mistakes. Do the Vikings get back to form, or do they spend another game bumbling before figuring things out late? I think the combination of Aaron Jones pounding the ball on the ground and Sam Darnold making better passing decisions carries the day.
NFL Pick: Vikings to win and cover.
^Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins
When: Sunday, November 17, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 44.5
The Raiders come out of their bye week with the chance to turn things around on a season that has careened into the gutter since that early win in Baltimore. The Miami Dolphins showed some fire, finally, after that Monday night win in Los Angeles. The Raiders have covered in each of their three contests this season as underdogs of at least a touchdown, and Gardner Minshew has figured out ball security a bit, playing two straight games without an interception. The Raiders do struggle to run the ball, and we just saw Miami absolutely bottle up a Rams team that runs the ball pretty well. Also, we have a West Coast team heading east and playing on the East Coast in the early time slot, which seems to skew things against them. I like Miami to keep this momentum going.
NFL Pick: Dolphins to win and cover.
^Cleveland Browns (+1) at New Orleans Saints
When: Sunday, November 17, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 44.5
The Saints took down the Atlanta Falcons in an impressive Week 10 victory, and their next task is a visit from the confusing Cleveland Browns. Jameis Winston will get the start at quarterback after having the bye week to prepare against his former team. Darren Rizzi enters his second week as the Saints’ interim head coach, and he will have his hands full off the Cleveland running game. This could be the week when Browns tailback Nick Chubb shakes off the rust from his extended injury layoff and takes over a game. Myles Garrett picked up three sacks in the Browns’ Week 9 loss. Will we get Week 8 Jameis Winston or Week 9 Jameis Winston? The Week 8 version led the Browns to a motivational win over the Baltimore Ravens. The Week 9 version…not so much. Even so, two up-and-down teams meet, and I think the Browns show that outstanding defense and establish the running game to control the rhythm.
NFL Pick: Browns to cover.
^Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
When: Sunday, November 17, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 48.5
I liked this line a lot more before this past weekend’s games. Yes, the Ravens won their latest video-game style showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Steelers’ win in Washington might have been more impressive, because the Commanders have a legitimate defense while the Bengals don’t really seem to emphasize that side of the ball this year. The Steelers are pounding the ball on the ground with Najee Harris and getting legit deep ball energy from a rejuvenated Russell Wilson. Interestingly, the Steelers have won seven of their last eight against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is just 1-3 against Pittsburgh as a starter and has taken a combined 20 sacks in those games. Also, the Steelers lead the Ravens by a half-game in the AFC North. So how are they home underdogs again?
NFL Pick: Steelers to cover.
^Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at San Francisco 49ers
When: Sunday, November 17, 4:05 pm ET, FOX
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 50.5
Christian McCaffrey is back for the 49ers, and Brock Purdy has shown that he’s locked in. They beat one of the pluckiest teams in the NFL last week when they edged Tampa Bay, 23-20. When Seattle and San Francisco met up in Washington, the 49ers rolled, 36-24. The Seahawks are 2-1 straight up on the road, but when they are an underdog, they are just 1-3 against the spread. I think the 49ers iron out some more wrinkles in their offense this time around and cruise.
NFL Pick: 49ers to win and cover.
^Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, November 17, 4:25 pm ET, CBS
NFL totals Week 11: O/U 44
Should this be the Sunday night, or the Monday night, game? Absolutely. The Bengals-Chargers video game and the beating that Houston will administer to Dallas are not nearly as prime-time worthy as this matchup. The Chiefs bring a 9-0 record to Orchard Park, but their run of luck – missed calls at crucial moments, special teams gaffes by the opposition – won’t carry them to 17-0. Josh Allen has the Bills on a five-game winning streak, and in his regular-season career against the Chiefs, he has thrown nine touchdown passes against just two picks, and he has run for 41.2 yards per game in those contests. Patrick Mahomes has posted a 7:5 TD:INT ratio in his regular-season matchups. Can the Chiefs get by a spirited Bills team on the road? I see this matchup ending the Chiefs’ perfect start and setting the stage for a key divisional or AFC Championship showdown.
NFL Pick: Bills to win and cover.
^Which (hypothetical) matchup would you want to see the most 👀 @surface pic.twitter.com/PSEG487OcL
— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2024
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