The Houston Texans’ next stop on a quest for the #1 draft pick is a visit from the New England Patriots in Week 5. The Texans beat Jacksonville in Week 1 but have not won since, including a 40-0 undressing they took from the Buffalo Bills up in New York last week. The Patriots also lost last week, falling at home to Tampa Bay, but that loss came down to Nick Folk missing a 56-yard field goal in the waning seconds that would have put the underdog Pats ahead of the Super Bowl champions. Let’s take a look at this game from a NFL betting perspective.
NFL Preview: New England Patriots at Houston Texans (Sunday, October 10)
When: Sunday, October 10, 1:00 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Radio: WBZ 98.5 FM Boston / KILT 610 AM Houston
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: New England -9 / O/U 39.5 // New England -430 / Houston +330
Why should you bet on the Patriots?
New England is also 1-3, thanks in large part to an offense that has struggled to turn drives into points. They were six-point underdogs against Tampa Bay but only lost by two, and they are 2-2 against the spread. The fact that the Patriots have only put up 30 points combined in their last two games has to be a matter of concern for Bill Belichick. Quarterback Mac Jones has improved significantly; against Tampa Bay, he threw for 275 yards and, at one point, had 19 completions in a row. However, the Pats have largely walked away from the running game, as Damien Harris, the featured back, only had four carries against Tampa Bay and has 172 yards in four games.
As we might expect, the New England defense has been terrific all season. The pass defense ranks fourth in the NFL, although the rushing defense could be better (ranking 19th). Linebacker Matt Judon has already posted 4 ½ sacks on the season, and J.C. Jackson leads the team with two interceptions. This unit has permitted just 17.5 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league at this point. Tis defense should feast on Davis Mills trying to run the Houston offense.
Why should you put your money on the Texans?
Houston went into Buffalo last week as 19-point underdogs, and that immense line proved justified when the Bills rolled to that 40-0 win. The Texans have covered, though, in half of their games. In their last home game, they fell to Carolina, 24-9. Rookie Davis Mills will start at quarterback in relief of the injured Tyrod Taylor. Mills has an ugly 2:5 TD:INT ratio this year, and teams have taken advantage by loading the box against the run. Mark Ingram II has only 171 rushing yards through four games as a result. Brandin Cooks has been the only pleasant surprise on offense, having broken the 100-yard mark in two of the team’s four games. The offense has scored a total of nine points in their last two games, and the Pats’ defense will not be forgiving of mistakes.
On defense, Houston gave up 450 total yards against Buffalo last week. The rush defense ranks 28th, and the pass defense ranks 22nd. Zach Cunningham will return after missing last week due to COVID-19 protocols. Whitney Mercilus has contributed on defense, picking up three sacks. As a team, though, the Texans permit 29 points per game, and they only score 16.8 per contest, and that double-digit deficit is not a winning formula.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
After wishing for the firing of former coach and GM Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans fans have to feel like their team has gone down the sewer. There does not seem to be a rebuilding plan in place for a team that, just a few months ago, was only a few pieces away from real contender status. I predict a final score of New England 23, Houston 9.
NFL Betting Odds
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