New England at Tampa Bay NFL Odds & Expert Analysis for Week 5

The New England Patriots travel down to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers on Thursday night, and they head down in an unusual position — in second place in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills have a 3-1 record, a game ahead of the Patriots, who took their second home loss of the season this past Sunday, falling 33-30 to the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers enter the game at 2-1, but they had to rely on a last-second field goal to escape their game with the New York Giants with a victory. The Patriots are slight favorites against the Buccaneers in Week 6. Take a look at our perspective on these NFL odds before you place your wagers.

New England at Tampa Bay NFL Odds & Expert Analysis for Week 5

It’s October 3rd. pic.twitter.com/BBFeRladM0

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 3, 2017

When: Thursday, October 5, 2017, 8:25pm ET Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL TV: NFL Network / Amazon Prime Radio: 98.5 FM (New England) / WDAE 620 AM (Tampa Bay) Live Stream: NFL Live NFL Odds: New England -4.5, O/U 54

Weather Forecast

• Chance of Rain: 26^°C/79^°F
• Humidity: 78%
• Precipitation: 42%
• Wind: 16 mph NE
• Cloud Cover: 81%
• Type of Stadium: Open

Why should you bet on the Patriots?

The Patriots are having real problems stopping the pass right now. Carolina came in ranked #30 in the NFL in passing yards per game, and tight end Gregg Olsen was not available for the play. Cam Newton had not looked like his 2015 self all season long, but he returned with a vengeance, throwing three touchdowns and running for another one. It helped that he was playing against the NFL’s worst defense against the pass. The Patriots have now permitted 42 points to Kansas City, 33 points to Houston (although they won that game with a desperation comeback) and 33 to Carolina. The good news for New England is that they still have Tom Brady leading their offense. Against the Panthers, he went 33 for 45 for 307 yards with a pair of touchdowns. As long as the Patriots have Brady at the helm, it won’t matter who goes down to injury (they are just missing Julian Edelman going into Thursday), because Brady can still find Gronk…or Danny Amendola…or Chris Hogan..or James White. The Patriots keep changing out the parts on offense, and they keep scoring. But can they outscore Tampa Bay?

Why should you put your money on the Buccaneers?

This game should have been in hand for Tampa Bay much earlier, but new kicker Nick Folk left seven points on the field, missing an extra point and a pair of field goals. Luckily for the Buccaneers, he made the last kick of the day, turning a 23-22 deficit into a 25-23 win. Jameis Winston led the offense effectively, with a pair of touchdown passes early on and then a third in the fourth quarter. On the day, he went 22 for 38 for 332 yards. Tailback Jacquizz Rodgers picked up 83 yards on 16 attempts, as the Buccaneers gained 434 yards on the day. The Tampa Bay defense gave Eli Manning and the New York Giants as much as any team as given them this year, and that Giant drive to score a touchdown with just over three minutes left in the fourth period would have been the nail in the coffin if Odell Beckham Jr. hadn’t caught the ball on the two-point conversion attempt out of bounds. So while Tampa Bay has shown they can move the ball, I worry about their ability to stop Tom Brady and the New England offense. If you like Tampa Bay, then you see Jameis Winston being just as opportunistic as Cam Newton was a week ago — and you don’t see the Patriots making the necessary adjustments from a week ago.

Latest NFL Odds Trends

 

• New England is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
• New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games at home

 

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I doubt that I’m the only sports blogger out there who is surprised to see the Patriots 2-0. The defense had some issues last year, but that didn’t stop the team from buckling down when they needed to and winning a Super Bowl. They have some major issues to fix, both in the front seven and in the secondary. Even so, I can’t see them losing to the Buccaneers after losing the way they did last week. I predict a final score of New England 34, Tampa Bay 27.