Must-Bet Games and Expert Analysis: NFL Week 4 Betting Guide

Must-Bet Games and Expert Analysis: NFL Week 4 Betting Guide

Written by on September 24, 2024

There are five unbeaten teams left in the NFL Week 4. They are: Minnesota, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Buffalo.

Before the start of the season, knowing that Pittsburgh and Minnesota were dealing with backup quarterbacks, did you have either of them starting 3-0?

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would likely win the MVP award if the regular season ended today, based on his rejuvenated play.

The San Francisco 49ers – the defending NFC champions? They’re 1-2. The Cincinnati Bengals, picked by some to win the AFC this year?

They’re 0-3. The Washington Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, are now 2-1 after Daniels completed a rookie record 92% of his passes in a Monday night win in Cincinnati.

What can we look forward to in NFL Week 4? Don’t miss out on our sports betting advice. There are some key games on the slate, such as Minnesota’s trip to Lambeau Field to take on a Green Bay team that is 2-1 – but is 2-0 with backup quarterback Malik Willis running the show.

Seattle heads to Detroit in their stiffest test of the season so far. The Seahawks beat the Lions, 37-31, in overtime last year, so this should be an interesting rematch.

Get the Full Sports Weekend Action with the NFL Week 4 Odds and Predictions

 

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at N.Y. Giants

When: TNF, September 26, 8:15 pm ET, NBC/Peacock

We’ll have a longer article about this matchup later today, but the Cowboys have dropped two in a row at home despite the fact that quarterback Dak Prescott is tops in the league with 851 passing yards. His rating, though, is just 85.8, which tells you how many attempts he’s needed to get those yards. Prescott has a 12-game winning streak going against the Giants, but the Giants just beat the Cleveland Browns, and rookie Malik Nabers had a pair of touchdowns. The Cowboys’ running defense has been atrocious so far. Devin Singletary is the Giants’ featured back, and quarterback Daniel Jones is at least as good with his legs as he is with his arm at this point.

NFL Pick: Giants to cover.

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New Orleans Saints (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

The Saints enter this game at 2-1, and they were a quarter away from starting 3-0. They had a 3-0 lead on the Philadelphia Eagles going into the fourth quarter on Sunday before ending up on the wrong side of a 15-12 final score. Tailback Bijan Robinson should have room to run for the Falcons, and Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked more than clutch in Weeks 2 and 3. The Falcons beat the Eagles on the road and pushed the Chiefs hard in prime time this last week. One of these two teams will likely win the NFC South crown, so this is a huge matchup.

NFL Pick: Falcons to win and cover.

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Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

Minnesota is 3-2-1 in their last six visits to Lambeau Field. Justin Jefferson is averaging 19.5 yards per reception with three touchdowns on the season so far. Expect the Packers to cover him with Jaire Alexander, renewing that fun receiver-cornerback rivalry. Jordan Love is expected to return from the MCL sprain that sidelined him at the end of the Packers’ Week 1 loss to Philadelphia, but the challenge will come with generating a legitimate rushing attack against a Minnesota D that only permits 71.3 yards per game. These two teams have split their NFC North series for four seasons in a row, but this time around, Love has rust to shake off, while the Vikings come in with all the momentum after routing Houston, 34-7, in Week 3.

NFL Pick: Vikings to cover.

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Denver Broncos (+7.5) at N.Y. Jets

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

The Broncos just went to Tampa Bay and beat a tough Buccaneers team, and this week’s business is no easier – going to New York and tangling with legendary Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has a history with both Sean Payton and Nathaniel Hackett, so it will be interesting to see how the Broncos’ defense knows about how to take on Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has only taken five sacks in three games, so he’s avoiding trouble but still throwing with elite accuracy. The Jets posted seven sacks in Week 3 against the Patriots, and they’ll be coming after Denver rookie QB Bo Nix. Nix didn’t turn the ball over against Tampa Bay, but with the Jets’ pass rush he will have to up his game to avoid poor decisions this time around.

NFL Pick: Jets to win and cover.

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Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers

When: Sunday, September 29, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

Andy Dalton started for Carolina this past weekend and led the Panthers to a win. He started his NFL career with the Bengals and played there for the better part of a decade before moving on. He has played the Bengals as a member of the Cowboys, Bears and Saints, and in those three games, he has a 2-1 record and a 100.8 passer rating. The Bengals should be able to get after him with Trey Hendrickson and the rest of the pass rush, and we saw a dynamic connection between Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase. The defense needs to get more stops, though – the loss to Washington was not the fault of the offense. Since 2022, Cincinnati is 6-4 ATS as a road favorite, and that should continue.

NFL Pick: Bengals to win and cover.

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Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Arizona Cardinals

When: Sunday, September 29, 4:05 pm ET, FOX

The Cardinals returned to earth last week as Detroit came to town and delivered a 20-13 lesson. Marvin Harrison Jr is still an elite talent though, at wide receiver. He’s still averaging 19.8 yards per reception, with three scores. Washington has a short week after their Monday night win, but you have to like how quickly Jaylen Daniels is growing into the starting QB role. This is the first time Arizona has been favored to win under second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon. Kyler Murray looks like his old self, but if Washington can keep mounting sustained drives, Murray won’t be able to spend as much time working his magic.

NFL Pick: Commanders to cover.

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Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens

When: SNF, September 29, 8:20 pm ET, NBC/Peacock

Buffalo heads to Baltimore on a short week. We saw the Ravens build a hefty 28-6 lead in Dallas behind a stout running game, but the Ravens almost had another one of their patented collapses as the Cowboys scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. If they had converted two two-point conversions, they would have won, but they fell short, 28-25. Buffalo’s offense looked unstoppable on Monday night, but their opposition was just the Jacksonville defense. The Bills are thriving by avoiding turnovers, and with James Cook running the ball, the offense has found balance. If the Bills can bottle up the Baltimore running game, like Las Vegas and Dallas did in the fourth quarter in each of the last two weeks, then they should win again.

NFL Pick: Bills to cover.

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Seattle Seahawks (+4) at Detroit Lions

When: MNF, September 30, 8:15 pm ET, ABC

Seattle’s defense has only allowed 14.3 points per game so far, leading to the Seahawks’ hot start. The Lions are dealing with tight end Sam LaPorta’s ankle injury and Jared Goff’s turnover issues so far. All three of their games have been decided by one score. As a home favorite since 2023, the Lions are 9-3 straight up and 7-5 against the spread. Playing in prime time should add some motivation.

NFL Pick: Lions to win and cover.

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