Last year, the lower seeds posted a 4-2 straight up record in the NFL’s wild card round. Some of this has to do with disparities among divisions; after all, the NFC East was won by a 7-9 Washington Football Team, which had a higher seed as a division title than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went on to win the Super Bowl. Also, the AFC South was won by a Tennessee Titans team with a balky defense and which had a much easier route to the postseason than the Baltimore Ravens, who snagged a wild card out of a very competitive AFC North and won in Nashville. In fact, the AFC North produced such strong teams that two wild cards came out of that division – and both of those teams won in the first round.
What can we expect to see this weekend? Let’s look at some NFL betting picks.
NFL News: NFC Divisional Betting Predictions
NFC Playoff Bracket | (1) Green Bay Packers (bye)
(7) Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) at (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 16, 1:00 pm ET, FOX
The Philadelphia Eagles won six of eight down the stretch; even though none of those six wins came against teams that are headed to the postseason, the Eagles’ offense really took off, only putting up fewer than 26 points once in those last eight games and hitting 30 or more points three times. The running game, behind Miles Sanders and quarterback Jalen Hurts, has done real damage, setting up Hurts to throw the ball down the field now and then.
The size of this line is somewhat surprising, although some may be misled by the Eagles’ 51-26 loss to Dallas in Week 18. Hurts and Sanders did not play, and the Eagles only dressed 42 players off their 53-man roster for the game due to COVID-19 protocols and injuries. The team should be back at full strength to take on a Tampa Bay team that does not have Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown. Leonard Fournette could return to run the ball, as he returned from IR on Wednesday. If he can’t go or is limited, Le’Veon Bell and Ke’Shawn Vaughn would likely get the majority of the touches. I like the Eagles to keep this game closer at this point, although a straight up upset does not seem likely.
Eagles to cover: Bet the Game Today
(6) San Francisco 49ers (+3) at (3) Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 16, 4:30 pm ET, CBS
The key number to watch in this game is turnovers by San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo will throw interceptions from time to time, especially when he faces pressure, and the Dallas Cowboys have excelled at grabbing takeaways. Trevon Diggs has tied the league and franchise record for interceptions in a season with 11, and he should return for the wild card game. Micah Parsons should also return, and he has been a force in terms of generating pressure on the quarterback.
Without pressure and takeaways, though, this could be a long day for Dallas. When Garoppolo led San Francisco to the Super Bowl, he only attempted 8 passes in the team’s NFC Championship win over Green Bay, as the 49ers just kept pounding the ball on the ground. Dallas’ front seven can pressure the passer, but they have shown limited ability to stop committed ground games, as we saw in their loss to Denver and, to a surprising degree, in the first half of their win in Philadelphia in Week 18.
49ers to cover: Bet the Game Today
(5) Arizona Cardinals (+4) at (4) L.A. Rams
Monday, January 17, 8:15 pm ET, ESPN / ABC
Which troubled team do you like here? The Cardinals went 1-4 in the last five games of the regular season, permitting 120 combined points in those four losses (and 22 in the win). The Rams did win the division despite giving up a 17-0 lead in Week 18 against San Francisco – and while the Rams went 3-1 down the stretch, Matthew Stafford threw 8 picks in those games. I’m not impressed by Arizona’s finish to the season, and I think the Rams’ defense does enough to lead the team to a win.
Rams to win and cover: Bet the Game Today
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