After the Kansas City Chiefs knocked off the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship to set the stage for a Super Bowl LV matchup in Tampa against the Buccaneers, the initial point spread that came out was Kansas City -3.5. It would likely have been higher except for one unique factor to this title game — the fact that the Buccaneers will be the host team. Before the AFL and NFL matched up their league champions, both leagues played their championship games in the stadium of the higher-seeded team instead of moving to a neutral site, selected several years ahead of the actual matchup. It was only a matter of time until one of the teams playing in the game would also be the host.
Let’s go over some facts about the game to help you with your online Super Bowl betting choices.
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First, let’s take a look at Tom Brady’s record as an underdog in the playoffs. This will be just the eighth time he has entered a playoff game without being on the positive side of the point spread. In those first seven matchups, his team has won 4 and the opponents have won 3, both straight up and against the spread. This season, he has gone 2-0 SU and against the spread as a playoff underdog, beating both New Orleans and Green Bay on the road.
Brady should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball down the field. He has Mike evans, Scotty Miller, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and (if he’s back) Antonio Brown running routes. His O-line kept the Green Bay pass rush off him for the most part. The only game the Chiefs lost while playing to win came against the Raiders, a 40-32 setback. Could the Bucs put up that kind of offense against the Chiefs? Yes they could.
Brady did throw three interceptions against Green Bay, and it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs use Tyrann Mathieu in this game. Mathieu might move late to roll to the middle of the field to swipe passes. That will shut the window at the second level against crossing routes and in-breakers. Mathieu will have to look for openings on the edge blitz as well.
The Kansas City defense was ranked twentieth in the league this season for defensive efficiency. That’s a drop from 13th a year ago; over the last three seasons combined, it has ranked 21st. Steve Spagnuolo has been able to get his defense amped at the right time, such as when they shut down Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship a year ago, when they held the 49ers scoreless in the fourth quarter of last year’s Super Bowl, limited Cleveland to just 112 rushing yards and befuddled Josh Allen with different blitz and coverage packages. Can he do the same thing to get his unit ready to stop Tom Brady?
Spagnuolo was the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, when the G-men beat the Patriots. However, that was 13 years ago. The keys for the Chiefs’ defense will start with getting pressure on Brady and maintain coverage down the field. We know that Kansas City will score points. What we don’t know is whether Tampa Bay will be able to keep up in this track meet.
The Buccaneers have scored 45 percent of their points in these playoffs off turnovers. They have scored 41 points off takeaways, including two touchdowns off takeaways against the Packers in the NFC Championship. For the season, they scored 101 points off takeaways, third best in the league, but that was only 21 percent of their points. Can they maintain that high percentage against Kansas City? That’s another question to consider as you plan your wagers.
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