The divisional round of the playoffs has historically been an interesting week for sports betting enthusiasts. When the NFL had a 12-team postseason format, there were four teams sitting and waiting for an opponent to come from the wild card round; with the 14-team format, there is just one team in each conference with a bye. You might think that having had a week off and getting to host the divisional round would make the win fairly automatic. However, home teams only have a .587 winning percentage in the NFL since 2004. In the divisional round, home teams have gone 43-21 (.672 winning percentage) over that same stretch. So the home team looks like a safe bet, right?
Take a look at some of the top divisional round upsets in NFL history.
NFL News: Divisional Rounds in League History
Minnesota 36, San Francisco 24 (1987)
The Vikings had clawed into the playoffs with an 8-7 record, and they had already upset the New Orleans Saints on the road. Their next win was even more shocking, as they took on a 49ers team that had gone 13-2 during the regular season. However, the Vikings prevailed, as Anthony Carter caught 10 passes for 227 yards, and Joe Montana found himself on the bench in the second half, in favor of Steve Young.
Jacksonville 30, Denver 27 (1996)
Jacksonville was just in its second year of existence, but they cobbled together a 9-7 record to take a wild card slot in the AFC. They went to Buffalo and knocked off the Bills in the wild card round, leading to a matchup with the top-seeded Denver Broncos, whom John Elway had led to a 13-3 record. The Broncos took a 12-0 lead in the first quarter, but Mark Brunell and Natrone Means brought the Jaguars all the way back for the shocking win.
Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18 (2005)
Peyton Manning had led the Indianapolis Colts to a 14-2 record and the top AFC seed. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers ground up the clock with a patient running game, and Ben Roethlisberger had a solid day. The Colts almost came back in the fourth quarter, but the Steelers had just enough to leave the Hoosier Dome with a win.
N.Y. Jets 17, San Diego Chargers 14 (2009)
The Chargers won 11 games in a row to finish the regular season with a 13-3 record. The Jets had snagged a wild card with a 9-7 record, but the team did lead the league in fewest points permitted. Philip Rivers threw two interceptions, and LaDainian Tomlinson only ran for 24 yards, and the Jets were able to snatch the victory even though Mark Sanchez only threw for 100 yards.
N.Y. Jets 28, New England 21 (2010)
There was a time when the Jets had success against the Patriots during the Belichick era, but it’s been a long time. The Jets went in as nine-point underdogs, but they knocked off the top offense in the NFL for 2010, behind three touchdown passes from Mark Sanchez.
N.Y. Giants 37, Green Bay 20 (2011)
The Packers went 15-1 during the regular season, but the New York Giants peaked at the right time. The G-men had posted a 9-7 record to snag a wild card, but in the divisional round, Eli Manning threw three touchdown passes as the Giants would keep marching all the way to a Super Bowl title.
Jacksonville 45, Pittsburgh 42 (2017)
The Jaguars were a defense-first team in 2017, riding it to an AFC South championship. They edged the Buffalo Bills at home in the wild card round but then unleashed their offense against Pittsburgh, going up 28-14 at halftime despite having entered the game as seven-point underdogs. Leonard Fournette ran for three touchdowns as the Jaguars advanced to the AFC Championship.
NFL Divisional Rounds in League History