We’re less than three months away from the start of the 2021 regular season in the NFL, which means it’s time to start breaking down the divisional races to understand who will emerge to host playoff games in the wild-card and divisional rounds. As we saw in the wild-card round last year, the chance that Washington got to host a playoff game brought them dangerously close to upending the eventual Super Bowl champions, as Tampa Bay struggled mightily to hold off a Washington team that did not have an NFL-caliber starting quarterback leading their offense.
Let’s break down each team’s odds in each division and look at the smartest online betting pick to win each title.
NFL News: Favorites in Each NFC Division
NFC North
Green Bay Packers -121
Minnesota Vikings +250
Chicago Bears +350
Detroit Lions +2000
This is the hardest division to handicap, simply because Aaron Rodgers continues to make it clearer and clearer that he does not want to play for Green Bay this season — and the team does not take Rodgers seriously. If Jordan Love is the team’s starting quarterback, then there’s no way the Packers are the prohibitive favorite. Instead, you’d have to like the Vikings, who would have the only established starting quarterback in the division if Rodgers ends up playing somewhere else — or going into retirement to get out of his contract with the Pack. So while I wouldn’t put any money down in this division, if you’re wanting a pick today, I’d have to go with the Vikings. Kirk Cousins played well down the stretch in 2020, but the defense needs to get back on track. Chicago will either have Andy Dalton or Justin Fields at quarterback, which means they will either have zero mobility or zero NFL experience at that position, and Detroit will have Jared Goff…and questions on the O-line and in their defense.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -200
New Orleans Saints +300
Atlanta Falcons +800
Carolina Panthers +1100
This division became a lot less interesting when Atlanta traded Julio Jones to Tennessee. The Saints had already seen Drew Brees head off into retirement, which means that Jameis Winston (high ceiling, high propensity for throwing interceptions) or Taysom Hill (fun as a gadget player, limited effectiveness as a starter last year) will be running the offense. Tampa Bay returns all of their starters on both sides of the ball, and the other three teams are all in various stages of retooling.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys +125
Washington Football Team +260
New York Giants +350
Philadelphia Eagles +500
Yes, Dak Prescott is back for Dallas. He’s told the press that Ezekiel Elliott is in the best shape of his playing career. Mike McCarthy was so pleased with minicamp that he shut it down a daily early and sent everyone home. However, that defense is extremely young, and there is a new defensive coordinator in town, in the person of Dan Quinn. I’m taking the extra value and picking Washington here. They have the best defense in the East, perhaps the entire NFC, and now they have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and they will beat Dallas twice.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers +185
Los Angeles Rams +190
Seattle Seahawks +275
Arizona Cardinals +600
Did you know that San Francisco has posted one winning season in the last four years? One reason for that is the iffy health of Jimmy Garoppolo; when he has played quarterback, the 49ers are 22-8. Seattle is an interesting value pick, because they have only finished with fewer than ten wins once since 2012, and the Rams have to work in a new quarterback in Matthew Stafford. The Rams also lost Troy Hill and John Johnson III on defense in the off-season. An intriguing value pick is Arizona, who had some early boneheaded losses against Detroit and Carolina a year ago — and that bad loss to Miami coming out of the bye. If they had won two or three of those games, then they wouldn’t have had to win all three of their late-season games against the Rams and the 49ers to hope for a wild card. Kyler Murray has another year of experience, and if the Cardinals can’t slide all the way to a division title, they won’t miss the postseason this year.
NFL Betting Odds
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