The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl after a 50-year absence. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II, is the first quarterback who played high school or college football in the state of Texas to start in a Super Bowl. As sports betting has gotten underway, they have been named as slight favorites over the San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl LIV. Should you bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win? We will talk about the case for the Chiefs hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on the night of February 2.
Odds on Kansas City Chiefs Winning Super Bowl LIV
Odds to Win the Super Bowl LIV
The case for Kansas City begins with Patrick Mahomes. His numbers were not close to what he put up in 2018, but he missed time with a kneecap injury. Even so, he put up 4,031 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. His QBR for the season (78.0) was the second best in the NFL.
Mahomes has saved some of his best work for the playoffs, though. In his two postseason games, he has completed 66 percent of his passes and posted a 95.5 QBR. He has eight touchdown passes without a single interception. He also used his feet, rambling for 53 yards in each game, including a 27-yard touchdown run that broke the Titans’ will in the AFC Championship.
It is Mahomes’ approach to the game that makes him even more dangerous than his arm or his feet, though. He never seems to panic, showing that steady leadership that makes champions. The Chiefs trailed Houston by 24 in the divisional playoff and then trailed Tennessee by ten at two different points in the AFC Championship, but Mahomes just went to work and led his team back.
However, it’s not just Mahomes. There have been other elite quarterbacks that had the arm and the legs but did not have the people around them to help them get where they needed to go. Names ranging from Warren Moon and Dan Marino to Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb come to mind. However, with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Mahomes has several weapons down the field to use. Kelce is a four-time All-Pro at tight end, and Hill is All-Pro at wide receiver, along with his reputation as one of the most dangerous kick returners in the league. The fact that Sammy Watkins, an elite receiver in his own right, is almost an afterthought, shows how deep the Chiefs are. Watkins has put that to his advantage, getting open for seven receptions for 114 yards and a score against Tennessee. And we haven’t even mentioned tailback Damien Williams, who caught 62 balls for 662 yards and six scores during the 2019 regular season.
Those who think the 49ers can beat Kansas City point to the San Francisco pass rush. One reason for San Francisco’s conference championship is their ability to disrupt quarterbacks when they just rush four, which means they don’t have to gamble with blitzes. However, Kansas City’s offensive line only allowed 25 sacks, third best in the NFL, and they are in a division that has solid pass rush units. In the last eight games (all Kansas City wins), the Chiefs have permitted only nine sacks. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has not permitted a sack in 782 plays in which he had to pass block. Then there’s Mahomes, who is slippery and deceptively strong.
All of these reasons combine to make the Chiefs favorites. At a -120 moneyline, obviously they offer less value than San Francisco, but the 49ers only bring even money, so there is not a huge disparity at this point. If you like the Chiefs, you see their offense simply having too many weapons for even the vaunted 49ers defense to slow them down. Remember, Russell Wilson almost led the Seahawks to a win over the 49ers, and that was with a recycled retiree at running back. Kansas City has a similar offensive makeup — with better players at the skill positions.
