When will Brock Purdy fall back down to earth? He has led the San Francisco 49ers to seven wins in a row as the starter, unheard of for a third-string quarterback. Some thought that he would wilt under the pressure of the Dallas defense, and while the Cowboys brought their best on that side of the ball, Purdy weathered the storm, going 19 of 29 for 214 yards. Most importantly, he did not turn the ball over and hit Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey for key third-down completions on the last drive. He also hit George Kittle with an amazing 30-yard completion early in the fourth quarter to help get the team within field-goal range. Where was all of this when Purdy was at Iowa State? Well, he didn’t have an elite defense and an elite running back, and he didn’t have a great O-line in front of him. What will happen when he has to take his playoff game on the road this week? This is one of the questions we will answer in your NFL Playoffs betting preview to the two conference championship games.
NFL News: Conference Championship Sure Winners
→ Sunday, January 29
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 45.5) (3:00 pm ET, FOX)
The 49ers edged the Cowboys, 19-12, in a game marked much more by the 49ers’ defense than the offense. San Francisco only had two plays that went for more than 20 yards, but the defense made it stand up. They snatched two interceptions in the first half and limited Dallas to 282 yards of offense, including 76 on the ground. Ezekiel Elliott? 10 carries for 26 yards, and Tony Pollard got carted off the field with a high ankle sprain and a fractured fibula.
The first interception came when the 49ers brought pressure on Dak Prescott’s left, keeping Prescott from putting his body behind the pass, and so he threw a floater that was easy to pick off by Deommodore Lenoir. The Dallas defense held, but since the interception came at the Cowboys’ 27, it was easy for the 49ers to put up three points. The second interception came down in the red zone, after Dallas had converted a 4th-and-4 with a jet sweep play to CeeDee Lamb. With 1:24 left before halftime, Jimmie Ward undercut a route by Lamb, and he tipped the ball, and Fred Warner was waiting there for the interception. After that, the 49ers were able to drive down and get a field goal to go into the locker room up 9-6 at the half. Dallas would tie the game at 9-9 in the third quarter, but the defense stopped what looked like a Dallas touchdown drive, keeping them to just three.
Will the Philadelphia offense be as easy to stop? Miles Sanders is a tougher runner to stop than Elliott is these days, and Jalen Hurts can also do damage with his legs and his arm. The Eagles have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith running routes, while Dak Prescott stayed so locked-in on Lamb that it became easy for the 49ers to focus on him. Prescott was so locked-in on Lamb, in fact, that he did not see a wide-open T.Y. Hilton on a deep ball in the second half. Instead, Prescott tried to force the ball to Lamb in double coverage, luckily avoiding an interception. Hurts does a better job of progressing through his reads.
Even so, Hurts looks limited thanks to his throwing shoulder, and the 49ers’ offensive line is better than the Giants’, so McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell should have running room, and Purdy should have time to complete his slants and seam routes. San Francisco to cover, take the under.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 49.5) (6:30 pm ET, CBS)
This line has shifted four points since opening at Kansas City -2.5. Why? It might be the fact that Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain. Mahomes was able to return last week, but he was even limping on handoffs, and as color commentator Tony Romo pointed during the broadcast, a high ankle sprain will let a player return sometimes, but then a few days later, the swelling is so significant that movement is even less possible than it was the day of the injury. So this could mean an even more limited Mahomes, or it could mean that Chad Henne will have to play. Henne did well against Jacksonville, taking the team on a 98-yard touchdown drive while Mahomes was getting treatment, but he’s also a backup for a reason. Either way, the Bengals will have the better quarterback in this game, and the betting public understands that.
What about the receiving groups? The Bengals have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase gets the press and has the speed, but Higgins is also fast and has height. Burrow only had two starters on his offensive line on Sunday, but he got the ball out fast (2.5 seconds per attempt, on average) which meant the pressure couldn’t bother him. The Chiefs have JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdes-Scantling, and tight end Travis Kelce running routes, but that group is not significantly better – and the Bengals have the better running game.
So while it’s hard to pick against Mahomes, he has only gone 2-2 in the last four AFC Championships in which he has played – all at home. He comes into his fifth with less mobility than he has had before, and his counterpart, Burrow, comes in with all the confidence in the world. Cincinnati to win and cover.
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