One of the more compelling futures wagers in the NFL has to do with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Joe Burrow came on last season and started with a bang, leading the Cincinnati Bengals to a number of exciting finishes, going toe to toe with Baker Mayfield in an AFC North clash against the Browns before the Cincinnati defense faltered late. However, a knee injury against Washington ended his season — and his chances at Offensive Rookie of the Year. That honor instead went to Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who put up crazy numbers as a rookie — and now gets a new head coach to guide him into his sophomore season.
Check out the NFL betting odds for some of the 2021 class, along with our thoughts on their candidacy.
NFL News: Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Positionally, quarterbacks tend to dominate the awards if they can do well — but that means that they already have solid offensive talent around them at tailback and wide receiver, as well as a serviceable offensive line. Gaps in those areas doomed Burrow last year, but three of the last five Offensive Rookies of the Year have been signal-callers: Dak Prescott (2016), Kyler Murray (2019) and Herbert. Tailbacks Alvin Kamara (2017) and Saquon Barkley (2018) won the other two recent awards. If a tailback has a solid O-line ahead of him and can take the heat off the quarterback, he can win. Wide receivers have a harder time because of the complexity of route trees in pro playbooks. As a result, it takes them longer to mesh with the offense. Since 2000, Odell Beckham Jr (2014), Percy Harvin (2009) and Anquan Boldin (2003) are the only wide receivers to win the prize.
Trevor Lawrence (+275) is expected to start in the opener for Jacksonville, which gives him an edge in terms of time to stack up numbers and time to start the learning curve. James Robinson is a rising star at tailback, and Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark are an underrated wideout tandem.
Zach Wilson (+700) joins the New York Jets and may have bigger expectations on his shoulders since any quarterback for the franchise since Joe Namath guaranteed a win in Super Bowl III. He will have Elijah Moore and Corey Davis at wide receiver, but the Jets still need more talent at that position. Alijah Vera-Tucker was a great add at left guard, where he joins left tackle Mekhi Becton. The rest of the line is less consistent, though, and the defense is still rebuilding.
Kyle Pitts (+1000) is a rare instance of a tight end occupying a high spot on the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds list. He has the physical dimensions of a wide receiver, so he brings speed that is unique to the tight end position to an offensive unit that has Calvin Ridley at wideout. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan led the NFL in attempts and completions a year ago, and with Julio Jones now in Tennessee, that gives Pitts even more chances to catch balls.
Najee Harris (+1100) went to Pittsburgh with the 24th pick overall. James Conner was the starter last year for the Steelers, but he is now in Arizona, so Harris gets to come in as the starter and should get the opportunity to put up some crazy numbers. A lot of this will come down to how well Ben Roethlisberger can run the offense, so that defenses don’t get to stack the box against Harris.
Ja’Marr Chase (+1100) is a wide receiver who has a shot here, as he joins what should be a high-octane offense in Cincinnati. Tee Higgins will also be running routes for the Bengals (and should draw a lot of the shutdown cornerbacks), and Joe Mixon can still pound the ball in the running game. A.J. Green is now with the Cardinals, and Chase gets to rejoin Burrow, his former teammate at LSU.
Mac Jones (+1200) was picked 15th overall by New England. He joins the Patriot offense as perhaps the successor to Tom Brady. The Pats also have Cam Newton back at quarterback, but his limited effectiveness, particularly after his return from a case of COVID-19, may have Bill Belichick ready to get the rookie from Alabama onto the field sooner than later.
NFL Betting Odds
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