Over or Under? Bold Picks for NFL Win Totals in 2024

Over or Under? Bold Picks for NFL Win Totals in 2024

On Wednesday, the NFL released the full 2024 season schedule. The league had been releasing bits and pieces of the schedule here and there, such as the Week 1 showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of the AFC Championship and the Week 1 Monday Night Football tilt between the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers. With the full schedule out there, we know a lot – such as the belief that the league has in the entertainment value of the Jets. Over the first 11 weeks of the season, the Jets will play in prime-time six times, the most in an 11-week to open a season for any NFL team since the AFL and NFL merged in 1970. The Jets had five games in prime time last year, but when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1 with a torn Achilles tendon, that strategy went awry. The Jets also have a nationally televised game in an early slot when they take on Minnesota in London. The 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys also have six prime-time games, and nine other teams will play under the lights five times. There are also some prime-time yawners, such as the Monday night games between Washington and Cincinnati (Week 3) and New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 5). The best overseas matchup comes in Week 1 when Green Bay meets Philadelphia in Brazil. How will each of the 32 NFL teams fare when it comes to their win totals? Should you go over or under those in your NFL Odds? Read on to get our thoughts on each team.

NFL Odds for 2024 Season: Picking the Over/Under on Win Totals for Each Team

 

Kansas City Chiefs Picks (11.5)

It’s a good thing that the Chiefs drafted Xavier Worthy and picked up Hollywood Brown through free agency, because Rashee Rice’s troubles with the Dallas Police Department will likely keep him suspended for most or all of the regular season. They start at home against Baltimore and Cincinnati, so a 1-1 or even an 0-2 start could greet the back-to-back Super Bowl champs. In Weeks 14-17, they see the Chargers, Browns, Texans and Steelers in succession. Take the under.

San Francisco 49ers Picks (11.5)

Is Brock Purdy really just a “bus driver” quarterback? He led the NFL in yards per attempt (9.6), QBR (72.8), passer rating (113.0) and expected points added (115.6, according to Next Gen Stats). They spent two of their first four picks in the draft in the secondary. They do have a tough stretch after the Week 9 bye: at Tampa Bay, at Green Bay and at Buffalo in a four-game stretch that also includes a visit from Seattle. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Baltimore Ravens Picks (11)

The Ravens are in the AFC South, the toughest division in the NFL. Yes, they went to the AFC Championship last year, but the Browns, Bengals and Steelers should all be better than they were last year. We’ll see if Deshaun Watson can become more than a shell of his former self at quarterback for the Browns and start earning that big contract, but their defense is already elite. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Detroit Lions Picks (10.5)

The Lions’ secondary was 27th in passing yards allowed per game and 31st in passing yards allowed per attempt, and the off-season changes in that unit should pay big dividends. December brings home dates with Green Bay and Buffalo followed by trips to Chicago and San Francisco, but this is too tough a team to falter. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Philadelphia Eagles Picks (10.5)

The Iggles start their season on a Friday night in Brazil against the Packers. Saquon Barkley moved down I-95 from the Giants to join their NFC East rivals, and they added Devin White and Bryce Huff on defense via free agency while drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, two of the top three cornerbacks on the board. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Buffalo Bills Picks (10.5)

We may have seen the ceiling of the Josh Allen era in Buffalo. Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, and Tre’Davious White have all left, and the Bills haven’t done much to restock the skill positions. The Dolphins are still dangerous, and the Jets have Aaron Rodgers back. From Weeks 11-15, the Bills play Kansas City at home before the bye week and then welcome the 49ers before visiting the Rams and Lions. Yikes. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Dallas Cowboys Picks (10.5)

Dak Prescott did throw for 36 touchdown passes last season. He’s a pretty good fantasy quarterback, but when it comes to the postseason, he’s still a work in progress. The Cowboys head to Cleveland to face a plucky Browns defense in Week 1. The toughest part comes in October and November: at Pittsburgh, at home against Detroit, the bye week, at San Francisco, at Atlanta, at home against Philadelphia, and at home against Houston. Just winning two of those games might be considered a victory. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Cincinnati Bengals Picks (10.5)

Can the Bengals go worst to first in the AFC North? Adding Trent Brown via free agency and Amarius Mims through the draft has replenished the offensive line, which was their main flaw a year ago. Joe Mixon is gone, but Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are still running routes. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Green Bay Packers Picks (10)

The Packers drafted offensive lineman Jordan Morgan to give Jordan Love even more time in the pocket after a season in which he threw 32 touchdown passes. The rushing game was third-worst in rushing yards over expected against loaded boxes (-49), despite having bruisers Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In late November, the Pack host San Francisco and Miami before going to Detroit and Seattle. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Houston Texans Picks (10)

Houston added Danielle Hunter to their defense, and he had the fourth-most pressures in 2023, according to NextGen Stats. The team added Stefon Diggs at wide receiver, giving C.J. Stroud a third elite target (along with Tank Dell and Nico Collins). Their quarterback is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. The rest of the AFC South is flawed. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Atlanta Falcons Picks (9.5)

Tailback Bijan Robinson picked up 1,463 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. He should finish well over 1,000 rushing yards this season. The season begins with home dates against Pittsburgh and Kansas City as bookends around a trip to play the Eagles. The biggest flaw for this team right now is their pass rush. Oh, how will Kirk Cousins’ repaired Achilles tendon hold up? How about his confidence after the team drafted Michael Penix Jr in the first round? NFL Odds: Take the under.

N.Y. Jets Picks (9.5)

Can Aaron Rodgers stay healthy? He’s 40 with a surgically repaired Achilles tendon. Their offensive line is sneaky good, and their defense is ironclad. Breece Hall is going to be an elite tailback. The Jets’ schedule is fairly friendly. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Miami Dolphins Picks (9.5)

The Dolphins finished in the top five in total yards, total points, and pass completion percentage. Things get dicey after Thanksgiving, when they play at Green Bay. Their next five games include two dates with the Jets, trips to Houston and Cleveland, and a visit from San Francisco. Even so, the first two-thirds of the season are smooth sailing. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Chicago Bears Picks (9)

The Bears’ defense picked off 22 passes last year, tying the league best, even though their secondary spent most of the season on the injury report. Adding Caleb Williams at quarterback and giving him not just three solid wide receivers but also tailback D’Andre Swift makes the Bears’ offense look dangerous for once. NFL Odds: Take the over.

L.A. Chargers Picks (9)

Jim Harbaugh will have his hands full in this division. Their schedule is reasonably friendly, with only one tough four-game stretch (at home against Cincinnati and Baltimore and then at Atlanta and Kansas City) that comes in the middle of November. They finish with three cream puffs: at home against Denver, at New England, and at Las Vegas. NFL Odds: Take the over.

L.A. Rams Picks (8.5)

The Rams open in Detroit as Matthew Stafford goes back home. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff just got a big extension, but the team lost guard Jonah Jackson to the Rams. In the first 11 games, the Rams have a mostly friendly schedule, but in late November they host the Philadelphia before road trips to New Orleans, San Francisco and New York to face the Jets, with a home game against Buffalo in there too, to give them a lot of air miles. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers Picks (8.5)

Russell Wilson is in the Steel City, with Kenny Pickett settling is as the backup. He leads the Steelers to Denver in Week 2 in some early-season intrigue. However, after the bye in Week 9, the Steelers get all six of their AFC South games, along with a trip to Philadelphia and a visit from Kansas City. They need to make their hay in the early part of the year. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Cleveland Browns Picks (8.5)

The Browns have the toughest schedule in the NFL based on their opponents’ aggregate winning percentage from 2023 (.547). Their last four games involve a visit from the Chiefs, a trip to Cincinnati, a visit from the Dolphins, and a finisher in Baltimore – after a Week 14 game in Pittsburgh. No team has a tougher end to the season. The defense is still terrific, though, as they ranked in the top two in quarterback pressures, passer rating permitted, and pass completion percentage permitted. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Jacksonville Jaguars Picks (8.5)

No team has a tougher start than the Jaguars do – at Miami, at home against Cleveland, at Buffalo, and at Houston. The Jaguars also have two overseas games, with the travel drama that this involves. The Titans are in rebuild mode, but the Colts and Texans will give the Jaguars four tough games. Take the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks (8.5)

The Buccaneers have this four-game stretch from the middle of October to the middle of November: at home against Baltimore, at Atlanta, at Kansas City, and at home against San Francisco. The Bucs lost three high-profile defenders in the offseason, and their former OC, Dave Canales, is now Carolina’s head coach, so there could be some rust in the early going. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Indianapolis Colts Picks (8.5)

Anthony Richardson is back and healthy at quarterback. Is he a fraanchise quarterback? We’ll see what he does with the addition of Laiatu Latu and A.D. Mitchell at skill positions, and with the return of a healthy Jonathan Taylor at quarterback. They have a six game stretch in the middle of the season that will test them – Miami, at Houston, at Minnesota, Buffalo, at the Jets, and Detroit – but they also get to play the Jaguars and Titans twice each. NFL Odds: Take the under.

New Orleans Saints Picks (7.5)

Having Willie Gay Jr and Chase Young on your defense will make things better right away. The Saints open against Carolina and then have their hardest four-game stretch: at Dallas, at home against Philadelphia, at Atlanta, and at Kansas City. The NFC South is a wide-open division, so is it time for the Saints to claim that crown? NFL Odds: Take the over.

Seattle Seahawks Picks (7.5)

Seattle starts at home against Denver and at New England, so a 2-0 start is quite realistic. They do need to come out with a better run defense, as they were last in first downs permitted on the ground (144). New head coach Mike Macdonald is tasked with bringing in a new emphasis on rushing defense, and drafting defensive tackle Byron Murphy II in the first round was definitely a start. NFL Odds: Take the over.

N.Y. Giants Picks (6.5)

Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux were the faces of an intrepid defensive front last year. Trading for Brian Burns elevated that defense even further. The O-line is still a work in progress, and between Weeks 3-8, the team is at Cleveland, at home against Dallas, at Seattle, at home against Cincinnati, at home against Philadelphia, and at Pittsburgh. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Arizona Cardinals Picks (6.5)

Marvin Harrison Jr gives Kyler Murray an elite target at wide receiver, and he could smash the 1,000-yard barrier. The defense got Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols and Sean Murphy-Bunting via free agency and Darius Robinson and Max Melton in the draft, and this unit needed hel; after coming in 31st in points permitted per game last year. The season starts tough, with five of six coming against teams that made the playoffs in 2023, including visits to Buffalo, Green Bay and San Francisco. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Washington Commanders Picks (6.5)

The Commanders drafted Jayden Daniels out of LSU to be their quarterback of the future, and on defense they added Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, both who were in the top 15 in defensive stops in 2023. The early games will be tough; Weeks 3-6 see Washington at Cincinnati, at Arizona, at home against Cleveland, and at Baltimore. NFL Odds: Take the over.

Minnesota Vikings Picks (6.5)

Kirk Cousins is in Atlanta, and so the Vikings enter a new quarterback era after drating J.J. McCarthy and keeping some other free agents around could mean a real rebuild. They did get Aaron Jones to pound the ball, and he will see his old team at the end of September when the Vikings hit Lambeau Field. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Las Vegas Raiders Picks (6.5)

This team has a high ceiling, but they could also go 1-5 in their division fairly easily. From Week 6-11, they play Pittsburgh, at the Rams, and Kansas City at home, along with trips to Cincinnati and Miami. Their quarterback play needs to be average at best, but do they have an average quarterback? NFL Odds: Take the under.

Tennessee Titans Picks (6.5)

Will Levis had four touchdown passes in his first game as a rookie…and then just four more over the next eight games he played. Derrick Henry is gone, and Tony Pollard has arrived, which puts a lot more of the burden on the passing game. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Denver Broncos Picks (6)

Will Bo Nix be the Week 1 starter at quarterback? The Broncos begin at Seattle, at home against Pitsburgh, at Tampa Bay, at the Jets, and at home against Las Vegas, a team with a tough defense. Weeks 9 and 10 send the Broncos to Baltimore and Kansas City. NFL Odds: Take the under.

Carolina Panthers Picks (5.5)

The Panthers added talent around Bryce Young in the draft and in free agency, including guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. Wide receiver Diontae Johnson was a nice addition in free agency, and the team drafted playmakers at wide receiver, tailback and tight end. NFL Odds: Take the over.

New England Patriots Picks (4.5)

Could this team start 0-6? Yes. They will have a rookie quarterback, and they start in Cincinnati before coming home to face Seattle. Then they go to the Jets and 49ers and come home to play Miami and Houston. But things do improve after that, even though their division might give them six losses. NFL Odds: Take the over.

 
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