We’re not used to hearing the words “dumpster fire” associated with the New England Patriots during the Bill Belichick era, but here we are. After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Pats are now 3-11, eliminated from the postseason (and in the dubious running for the top draft pick). In the last two weeks, the Patriots’ offense has looked terrific in the first half, only to crater after the intermission. Bailey Zappe has gotten the start at quarterback in the last two games; he was terrific in the first half against Pittsburgh; in the second half, he led six drives, five of which ended in punts, the last ending in a pick. Against the Chiefs, he looked solid to start (although most of his passes were checkdowns), but he collapsed under pressure in the second half, throwing an awful interception to Willie Gay in the third quarter and missing on eight of his last 13 passes.
This week the Pats head to Mile High, where they face a resurgent Denver team. Will this end well? Read on to get our NFL betting thoughts.
NFL Preview: SNF New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
(Sunday, December 24)
When: Sunday, December 24, 2023, 8:15 pm ET
Where: Mile High Stadium, Denver
TV: NFL Network
Radio: Westwood Oney
Live Stream: Live Stream: Hulu+
NCAA Odds: Denver -6.5 / O/U 34.5 // Denver -300 / New England +250
Why Should You Bet on the Patriots?
Since their bye week, the Pats have lost to the Giants, Chargers and Chiefs, scoring a total of 24 points in those games. They did win the game in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, holding on for a 21-18 victory against backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky, but it was the defense that got that victory. Wide receiver Demario Douglas has shown his courage; the team offered to shut him down for the season so he can start 2024 fully healthy, but he has opted to play, and he and Hunter Henry have combined for 862 receiving yards and six scores. On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson is still the top producer with 619 yards and four scores, but Ezekiel Elliott has made some contributions the last few weeks.
The Patriots’ defense is limiting opponents to 21.4 points per game. Christian Barmore leads the team with 5 ½ sacks, and Jahlani Tavai is the top tackler with 90. However, Sundays have not been kind to the Patriots, who have a six-game losing streak on the seventh day of the week, and they have lost the first quarter in three of their last four contests against AFC West teams. But can their defense hang with the Broncos?
Why Should You Put Your Money on the Broncos?
The Broncos are 7-7 but have dropped two of three, losing in Houston and Detroit (but beating the Chargers at SoFi). Russell Wilson is finally having a bounceback season, throwing for 2,832 yards with a 24:8 TD:INT ratio. Courtland Sutton has emerged as Wilson’s clutch target in the end zone; he and Jerry Jeudy have combined for 11 scores and 1,351 receiving yards. Javonte Williams has nailed down the running back position with 677 yards.
The defense is inconsistent, allowing 25.1 points per game. Alex Singleton has posted an eye-popping 141 tackles, and Nik Bonitto has seven sacks, but overall, the defense has issues on all three levels. Denver has won the first quarter in six straight home games and won the first half of four straight home games against AFC foes, and they have also scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games at Mile High. With six wins in their last eight games, the Broncos are the smart pick here, but I’m not sure about that spread.
SNF New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Final Score and Prediction
Cold rain is in the forecast for Denver on Saturday, with a low of 31, but the rain should go away by Sunday night, leaving a cloudy sky and a temperature that will get below 30 during the game. I don’t see either quarterback having a huge night in those conditions, which means a ground game. Given how well the Broncos have run the ball, I see them taking advantage. However, I also see the Patriots prying away a turnover or two. I predict a final score of Denver 20, New England 16.
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