Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Lines & Betting Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs will host an AFC Championship for the first time on Sunday evening, welcoming the New England Patriots to town. In fact, this will be just the second appearance for the Chiefs in a conference championship; the first came in 1994, when the team lost, 30-13, in Buffalo. Long-suffering Chiefs fans are just two wins away from the team’s first NFL championship since Super Bowl IV, when the Chiefs were still in the American Football League and Len Dawson was the team’s quarterback. The Patriots come in looking for their ninth Super Bowl appearance in the last 18 seasons, appearing in their eighth consecutive AFC Championship — but playing away from home, which has become unusual during their era of AFC dominance. Can the Chiefs deliver the win? Or will Tom Brady undo yet another team’s dreams? We have your NFL betting preview right here.

Patriots vs Chiefs AFC Championship Lines & Betting Prediction

Tom Brady (2001) & Patrick Mahomes (2018) in First Seasons as Starter COMP PCT • TB: 63.9 • PM: 66.0 PASS YPG • TB: 189.5 • PM: 318.6 TD-INT • TB: 18-12 • PM: 50-12 Passer Rating • TB: 86.5 • PM: 113.8 Season Result • TB: Won Super Bowl XXXVI • PM: ???#NEvsKC

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 15, 2019

When: Sunday, January 20, 6:40pm ET Where: Arrowhead Stadium TV: CBS Radio: Westwood One Live Stream: NFL Live NFL Odds: Kansas City -3, O/U 57

Why should you bet on the Patriots?

New England almost missed out on one of the two byes in the AFC with losses to Miami and Pittsburgh down the stretch, but a pair of laughers against Buffalo and the New York Jets allowed them to finish at 11-5. Even so, many observers (including this observer) thought that the Patriots would struggle to cover against the Chargers. We saw that certainly was not true, as New England rolled out to a 35-7 lead in a game the Chargers would close to 41-28. Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 343 yards and a score, and tailback Sony Michel ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots’ pass rush frustrated Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers from the game’s opening moments. New England has covered in seven of their last 10 playoff games and in 19 of their last 27 games against a team with a winning record. In their last six games in January, the Patriots have covered six times. This is a team accustomed to winning on the biggest stages that the game has, time and time again, and their demolition of the Chargers should put the Chiefs on notice that New England is ready for their high-flying offense.

Why should you put your money on the Chiefs?

The Chiefs rolled to a big win over Indianapolis, winning by a 31-13 score. They needed that jolt after finishing the regular season 1-2, losing to the Chargers and Seattle before routing Oakland in Week 17. In their win over the Colts, Patrick Mahomes went 27 for 41 for 278 yards, and Damien Williams showed that the team has moved on from Kareem Hunt at the tailback position, rumbling for 129 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Travis Kelce torched that Colt zone defense, catching seven passes for 108 yards. The pass rush was also impressive, as the Chiefs looked committed on defense for the first time in a long time. But can they stop Tom Brady? The Chiefs have covered in 13 of their last 18 games against AFC foes — however, they have only covered twice in their last eight games overall, and twice in their last 11 playoff games. Andy Reid has developed a reputation for losing playoff games, in large part because of time management but also other mental errors down the stretch.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

New England won the regular-season matchup between these teams, 43-40. This will be a lot colder environment, but I still expect a neck-and-neck battle. New England is the time-tested team in playoff battles like this, but can they put up a similar effort after throttling the Chargers, given the age of their roster? I see the Chiefs winning, 30-27.