As we move toward the start of NFL training camps, it’s time to start looking at the sports betting odds that each team faces in terms of winning its division, the conference and even the Super Bowl. Some divisions seem to have a pre-determined winner already, like the AFC West and, perhaps, the AFC South. Others seem to be a tight race from the beginning, such as the NFC North and the NFC South. Let’s look at each NFL team’s odds of a division crown and some thoughts about longshots that you should consider picking.
NFL Betting News: Divisional Longshots for 2023
AFC East
- Buffalo +125
- N.Y. Jets +250
- Miami +300
- New England +750
AFC North
- Cincinnati +140
- Baltimore +240
- Cleveland +425
- Pittsburgh +450
AFC South
- Jacksonville -160
- Tennessee +350
- Indianapolis +550
- Houston +800
AFC West
- Kansas City -165
- L.A. Chargers +340
- Denver +550
- Las Vegas +1100
NFC East
- Philadelphia +100
- Dallas +175
- N.Y. Giants +600
- Washington +1000
NFC North
- Detroit +130
- Minnesota +250
- Chicago +400
- Green Bay +500
NFC South
- New Orleans +130
- Atlanta +240
- Carolina +375
- Tampa Bay +550
NFC West
- San Francisco -150
- Seattle +200
- L.A. Rams +750
- Arizona +2500
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The N.Y. Jets are hard to classify as a longshot, as they are the second betting choice in the AFC East, but they have only won two division titles since the 1970 merger, and the most recent title came back in 2002. The Buffalo Bills seem to have a hammerlock on this division, but let’s remember that the Bills have a way of coughing up games they should win – and let’s look at some under-the-radar stats. The Jets were fifth in expected points allowed per play on defense – but just 29th in the same stat on offense. Now the Jets have a Hall of Fame shoo-in at quarterback, and they should also have sensational tailback Breece Hall back to give the offense balance. Head coach Robert Saleh preaches a stout culture on defense, and I see Aaron Rodgers having a lot better chance of willing his team to a 6-0 record in the division than I do Josh Allen this time around.
What about the Denver Broncos? Yes, Sean Payton is arriving in town as the head coach. However, as Jon Gruden showed us, there is no guarantee that a head coach with a pedigree of success can go sit in the broadcast booth for the better part of the decade, return to the field and find excellence again. Payton does have the benefit of having Russell Wilson at quarterback, and you’d like to think he has a lot left in the tank. The defense was eighth in the NFL in estimated points allowed per play in 2022, and Wilson’s QBR was in the top ten in the league in 2021. The O-line is stout, and a receiver group led by Jerry Jeudy makes this team a real threat, or at least a real value in that AFC West.
Are the Minnesota Vikings really the second betting choice in the NFC North? They won 13 games and a division title, but their point differential was lower than that of the Detroit Lions, who only won nine games. The Vikings started and finished reasonably strong in the regular season, but their defense lacks an attention span. That’s the only reason why the Vikings didn’t thrash everyone. Kirk Cousins has improved in his ball management. So why are the Lions favored so heavily, even after sending D’Andre Swift to Philadelphia for virtually nothing?
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