It was Upset City in two of the three AFC wild-card playoff games last week, particularly against the spread. The Jacksonville Jaguars found themselves down 27-0 late in the second quarter at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, thanks in part to four Trevor Lawrence interceptions in the first half, but then he threw for four touchdowns in the second half and guided the team to a 31-30 win, making the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history. Despite the fact that it was head coach Brandon Staley’s decision to play his starters in Week 18 (leading to Mike Williams’ back injury), it was the offensive coordinator and the quarterbacks coach who were shown the door after the win. The Miami Dolphins played Buffalo close despite rolling with a third-string quarterback, turning an early 17-0 deficit into a 34-31 loss, covering the spread thanks to the Bills’ sloppiness with the ball. The third AFC game, Baltimore’s trip to Cincinnati, almost turned into an upset before Tyler Huntley fumbled on a goal-line quarterback sneak, leading to a shocking 98-yard score on a fumble recovery by Sam Hubbard. How will the divisional round turn out? Don’t miss our NFL betting predictions for the two AFC matchups.
NFL News: AFC Divisional Round Betting Predictions
→ Saturday, January 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 53) (4:30 pm ET, NBC)
After a bye week, the Kansas City Chiefs look to take the first step toward their fifth straight AFC Championship berth, while the Jacksonville Jaguars look to return to the conference title game for the first time since their unlikely run in 2017. It is hard to imagine two more different halves than the ones that Trevor Lawrence turned in last week. The Jaguars’ defense was terrific, limiting the Chargers to 4.6 yards per play and just three points after halftime; once the offense stopped turning the ball over and giving the Chargers short fields, the Jaguars were able to mount an historic comeback.
The Chiefs are accustomed to tests in the divisional round; two years ago, they stopped the Cleveland Browns despite heroics from Baker Mayfield and an injury to Patrick Mahomes. Last year, they got into a track meet with the Buffalo Bills and prevailed, 42-36, in overtime. In Week 18, the Chiefs took advantage of a Las Vegas Raiders team playing its backup quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) and rolled to a 31-13 road win. Jacksonville visited Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 10, and the Chiefs won by 10. Kansas City opened a 20-0 lead early in the first half, and they were able to fend off the Jagaurs’ comeback. However, the Jaguars have all kinds of momentum right now, and that Kansas City defense will give up some big plays down the field. Jaguars to cover.
→ Sunday, January 22
Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 48) (3:00 pm ET, CBS)
Here are some interesting betting numbers for this game. The Bills are 7-1 straight up at home – but just 3-5 against the spread. Cincinnati covered in 12 of their 17 games during the regular season and in seven of nine games away from Paycor Stadium. Both of these teams can score in bunches, as the Bills were second in the league in points per game (28.8), second in points per game at home (32.1) and second in points per game over the last three contests (34.7). Cincinnati was seventh overall in scoring (27.0 points per game). On the road, they put up 24.1 points per game; over their last three, they scored 24.3 per contest. Against Baltimore, though, seven of those points came courtesy of that 98-yard fumble return.
Can the Bengals stop Josh Allen? Allen has stopped himself quite a few times, as we saw when the turnover parade started last week. Cincinnati has only permitted more than 18 points twice since Thanksgiving, with 11 takeaways in their last four games. The Bills have all kinds of weapons, with Sefon Diggs and Gabe Davis giving Josh Allen some excellent targets, and with tight end Dawson Knox scoring in five straight games, but the Bills will cough up the ball as well. A problem for the Bengals could involve missing three of their five starting offensive linemen. Buffalo got to Skylar Thompson for four sacks last weeks, and in the last four games in which Joe Burrow has taken at least four sacks, the Bengals are 1-4. Even so, the Bengals have shown more steadiness over the last month and a half than the Bills have. Bengals to cover.
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