Three of the most interesting quarterback situations in the NFL are brewing in the AFC South right now. The Houston Texans have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Deshaun Watson, on their roster. However, he has demanded a trade — and he is under league and police investigation for sexual misconduct — so the likelihood of him taking the field in a Texans uniform is unlikely. Tyrod Taylor is also on the roster, but the chemistry in the Houston locker room — and the talent — are not promising. Jacksonville welcomes Clemson phenom Trevor Lawrence for his rookie season, under the tutelage of incoming head coach Urban Meyer. Indianapolis bid farewell to retiring quarterback Philip Rivers and now takes on the project of reclaiming Carson Wentz’s promise. Tennessee, with Ryan Tannehill, has by far the most stability, especially with Derrick Henry to carry the ball and Julio Jones, acquired via trade from Atlanta, to run routes.
Let’s look at the updated online NFL betting odds for each team to win the division, along with our thoughts about each squad.
NFL News: Picks to Win the AFC South
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | +105 |
| Tennessee Titans | +110 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +800 |
| Houston Texans | +2800 |
Indianapolis is only a favorite in this division because of the defensive woes that the Titans showed at multiple times last season. Carson Wentz is reuniting with Frank Reich, who was his coordinator in Philadelphia. If you watched Wentz in his last two seasons in Philadelphia, he simply had lost all confidence. He would hold onto the ball way too long trying to extend plays, and he would either get strip-sacked or force the ball into tough coverage and get intercepted. That led to his benching in favor of Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, and it’s hard to imagine how much patience Reich will have with those problems given the expectations his fan base has of winning a division and making a playoff run.
Tennessee is my pick to win the AFC South, largely because I see the Carson Wentz gambit imploding. The problems that plagued Tennessee in 2020 — as they won the AFC South but lost at home to Baltimore in the wild card round of the playoffs — had to do with their defense, which gave up way too much. This year, they have a new defensive coordinator in Shane Bowen, and they also added cornerback Caleb Farley and pass rusher Bud Dupree. If the defense can get back to its 2019 form, this is a quiet sleeper for a deep run in the AFC playoffs.
Jacksonville is actually favored to win their Week 1 game — which has them on the road against the Houston Texans. In the off-season, the Jaguars had a ton of draft picks — and stacks of money in terms of cap space. In free agency, the team added wideout Marvin Jones Jr and cornerback Shaquil Griffin. In addition to Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars also drafted tailback Travis Etienne, cornerback Tyson Campbell, safety Andre Cisco and tackle Walter Little. It will be interesting to see how all this new talent will mesh together in a shortened off-season. Urban Meyer has already had some stumbles in handling his new team, but if the players can get off to a solid start, none of that will matter.
Houston also has Davis Mills on the roster as a quarterback, as new GM Nick Caserio used his first draft choice on the rookie out of Stanford. The loss of J.J. Watt to the Arizona Cardinals means that the Houston defense has even fewer weapons than before, but the biggest question facing the Texans has to do with concerns about racism in the front office, going all the way to the top, to owner Cal McNair. Uncertainty at quarterback and distrust of the front office combine to make this a toxic season in Houston. If they can get to five wins, that will be a huge plus.
NFL Betting Odds
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