Remember when the Philadelphia Eagles were 10-1? They had just come out of their bye week and mounted impressive comeback wins over Kansas City and Buffalo, but then things fell apart. They got whipped at home by San Francisco, losing by 23. They went to Dallas and lost by 20. They lost in Seattle by three, bounced back to beat the Giants, but then surrendered a comeback in a shocking loss to Arizona last week. The fact that they permitted 25 points in the win over the Giants should have been a warning about the state of the defense, and now there is drama in the locker room, with star wide receiver A.J. Brown finally ending his two-week silence with the media by explaining that he has full confidence in his head coach and offensive coordinator. Unless the Dallas Cowboys lose to Washington in Week 18, the Eagles are headed to the five-seed and a road date with the NFC South winner to start the playoffs. Let’s look at the complete NFL Playoffs picture going into Week 18 as you consider your NFL betting strategy.
NFL Playoffs Picture Entering Week 18 for AFC and NFC
NFC Seeds Entering Week 18
| San Francisco 49ers (12-4) (clinched NFC West title and first-round bye) |
| Dallas Cowboys (11-5) (clinched playoff spot) |
| Detroit Lions (11-5) (clinched NFC North title) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) |
| Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) (clinched playoff spot) |
| L.A. Rams (9-7) (clinched playoff spot) |
| Green Bay Packers (8-8) |
NFC Teams Still Alive Entering Week 18
| New Orleans Saints (8-8) |
| Seattle Seahawks (8-8) |
| Atlanta Falcons (7-9) |
| Minnesota Vikings (7-9) |
For the NFC East, if Dallas beats Washington, the Cowboys win the division. The Cowboys also clinch if Philadelphia loses to the Giants. Taking Dallas to win in Washington is the smart pick, but the Cowboys are so wobbly that I’m not putting significant money on this game. The Eagles are a mess too, and the Giants have absolutely nothing to lose on the outcome. So the East is still a toss-up to me.
Tampa Bay wins the NFC South if they beat Carolina on the road. This is the same Carolina team that lost, 26-0, to a Jacksonville team running with a backup quarterback last week. But the Buccaneers also lost to New Orleans last week with a chance to clinch the division. Baker Mayfield is a gamer, so I like the Buccaneers, but this crew is 8-8 for a reason. The Bucs also win the division if they tie the Panthers and New Orleans also ties or loses. If Seattle loses AND Green Bay loses or ties in Week 18, then the Bucs are in the playoffs no matter what happens in their own game.
Atlanta needs help to get the NFC South title. If they win in New Orleans on Sunday AND Tampa Bay loses, then they win the NFC South (with what would be an 8-9 record).
New Orleans needs Tampa Bay to lose or tie to have a shot at the division; if either happens, then a Saint win over Atlanta would deliver a division title. They could also tie Atlanta and get the division of Tampa Bay loses. The Saints can also get a wild-card berth if they win, Seattle loses or ties, OR Green Bay loses or ties. If they tie the Falcons and BOTH Green Bay and Seattle lose, then the Saints would get a wild-card berth.
Seattle plays at Arizona on Sunday afternoon, taking on a rejuvenated Kyler Murray. The Seahawks get a playoff berth if they win AND Green Bay loses or ties. They can also advance with a tie, if Green Bay loses AND either Tampa Bay or New Orleans loses or ties.
Green Bay hosts Chicago on Sunday. If they win, they’re in the playoffs. If they lose, they can still advance as long as Minnesota loses or ties, Seattle loses, AND Tampa Bay or New Orleans loses. If they tie, then Seattle needs to lose or tie, and Tampa Bay or New Orleans loses or ties.
Minnesota plays in Detroit on Sunday, with the Lions basically locked into the 3-seed. If they win, the Vikings can get into the playoffs so long as Green Bay, Seattle, AND EITHER New Orleans or Tampa Bay loses.
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AFC Seeds Entering Week 18
| Baltimore Ravens (13-3) (clinched AFC North title and first-round bye) |
| Miami Dolphins (11-5) (clinched playoff spot) |
| Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) (clinched AFC West title) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) |
| Cleveland Browns (11-5) (clinched playoff spot) |
| Buffalo Bills (10-6) |
| Indianapolis Colts (9-7) |
AFC Teams Still Alive Entering Week 18
| Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) |
| Houston Texans (9-7) |
The Jacksonville Jaguars clinch the AFC South title with a win at Tennessee. They also win the division if they tie and the Indianapolis-Houston game ends in a tie. They clinch a playoff berth if they tie AND Pittsburgh loses or ties OR Pittsburgh loses, Denver loses or ties, AND Indianapolis-Houston does not end in a tie.
The Buffalo Bills clinch the AFC East with a win at Miami. They clinch a playoff spot if they tie Miami, Pittsburgh loses or ties, Jacksonville loses or ties, OR Houston-Indianapolis ends in a tie.
The Miami Dolphins are in the playoffs but clinch the AFC East title if they beat or tie Buffalo on Sunday night.
The Pittsburgh Steelers need the most help. They play at Baltimore on Saturday, and if they win, AND Buffalo loses, Jacksonville loses or ties, OR Houston and Indianapolis tie, they get in. They also get in if they tie Baltimore, Jacksonville loses, AND Houston-Indianapolis does not end in a tie. They can even lose to Baltimore and get in, but Jacksonville has to lose, Denver has to win, AND Houston and Indianapolis cannot tie.
The Indianapolis Colts would win the AFC South if they beat Houston on Saturday night and Jacksonville loses or ties. They would also win the division if they tie Houston and Jacksonville loses. They clinch a playoff berth with a win over Houston OR a tie and a Pittsburgh tie or loss.
The Houston Texans clinch the AFC South title if they beat Indianapolis Saturday night OR Jacksonville ties or loses. They clinch a playoff berth with a win OR a tie, but if they tie, Jacksonville must lose and Pittsburgh must lose or tie to get that berth.
The odds favor Jacksonville to win, and I see the Colts beating Houston at home, with Jonathan Taylor back running the ball. Can Pittsburgh beat Baltimore with Lamar Jackson resting for the Ravens? Mason Rudolph will start at quarterback, even though Kenny Pickett has been medically cleared, which could lead to a major locker-room situation. Rudolph tends to throw a lot of interceptions but has a cannon of an arm, and I see the Ravens winning even with a backup quarterback – which means that the wild card berths would go to Cleveland, Buffalo, and Indianapolis.
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2023 Updated NFL Playoffs Picture Entering Week 17
Russell Wilson’s time in Denver seems to be coming to an end. The team lurched out to a 1-5 start before winning five games in a row, including victories over Kansas City, Buffalo on the road, Minnesota and Cleveland. After settling back down to earth and losing three of four, including a three-point home loss to a now 4-11 New England team, Broncos coach Sean Payton has announced he is benching Wilson in favor of backup Jarrett Stidham. He says that he is “desperately” trying to win, but what it really seems like the Broncos are doing is keeping Wilson from risking an injury in the last two games. An injury that keeps him from passing a physical by early March would guarantee him another $37 million, to go along with $39 million in guaranteed money for 2024. If the team does cut Wilson, they would face $85 million in dead money over 2024 and 2025. Would the team really do that? We will see. The Broncos (7-8) remain on the fringes of the NFL playoffs race. Let’s check out the rest of the current playoff picture as you consider your NFL betting options.
NFC Standings
Division Leaders
| San Francisco 49ers (11-4) – Clinched NFC West |
| Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) – Clinched playoff berth |
| Detroit Lions (11-4) – Clinched NFC North |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) |
Wild Card Berths
| Dallas Cowboys (10-5) – Clinched playoff berth |
| L.A. Rams (8-7) |
| Seattle Seahawks (8-7) |
Still Alive
| Minnesota Vikings (7-8) |
| Atlanta Falcons (7-8) |
| Green Bay Packers (7-8) |
| New Orleans Saints (6-9) |
| Chicago Bears (6-9) |
Obviously, San Francisco is better than they looked in getting stomped at home by the Ravens, but they’re not as good as they looked in embarrassing Philadelphia and Dallas. An interesting player is rookie safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who has had to start since Talanoa Hufanga went down with a season-ending injury in November. He has 35 tackles and a pair of interceptions, and the team will need him to contribute even more as the grind of the postseason approaches.
Detroit visits Dallas this week in one of the more interesting Week 17 showdowns. The Cowboys are 7-0 at AT&T Stadium this year, and their wins have been dominant. They only beat Seattle by six the week after Thanksgiving, but all of their other home wins have come by at least 20 points, including a 33-13 tattooing of Philadelphia on December 10. The Lions can keep pace with the 49ers and Eagles with a win, and they have the running game to keep Dallas’ defense on its heels. Can the Lions’ defense frustrate the Cowboys in a stadium where the Cowboys have been scoring in bunches?
AFC Standings
Division Leaders
| Baltimore Ravens (12-3) – Clinched playoff berth |
| Miami Dolphins (11-4) – Clinched playoff berth |
| Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) |
Wild Card Berths
| Cleveland Browns (10-5) |
| Buffalo Bills (9-6) |
| Indianapolis Colts (8-7) |
Still Alive
| Houston Texans (8-7) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) |
| Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) |
| Las Vegas Raiders (7-8) |
| Denver Broncos (7-8) |
Baltimore is a team that many thought might slide on offense after losing tight end Mark Andrews. Lamar Jackson simply found a new target in rookie Zay Flowers, who now leads the team in catches (74) and receiving yards (752). He has already broken the franchise record for catches by a rookie and is just 89 yards away from Torrey Smith’s rookie receiving yardage mark.
Miami edged Dallas in a key Week 16 matchup, but one thing you may have missed in the aftermath of the game, with Micah Parsons’ whining about the officials and Stephen A. Smith yelling about how the Cowboys choked again, is that the Dolphins kept their offense churning against what we were hearing was an elite Dallas defense without their starting tailback (Raheem Mostert) and one of their top receivers (Jaylen Waddle), both of whom suffered injuries fairly early in the game. The Dolphins already had a patchwork O-line, with just one Week 1 starter still playing. Tailback De’Von Achane came on to gash the Dallas defense on some key plays in the second half.
Previous Betting News
2023 Updated NFL Playoffs Picture After Week 13
Six weeks remain in the 2023 NFL regular season, and there’s a lot of movement left in the fight for the 14 playoff slots. In the NFC, it looks like the Philadelphia Eagles will get the top seed, which comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Eagles on the road this Sunday, that might change, but the Eagles have a two-game lead on the 49ers and a 1 ½-game lead on Dallas, winners over Seattle on Thursday night. In the AFC, there are four different teams with a shot at the top seed: Kansas City, Baltimore, Miami, and Jacksonville. We have our own ideas about how the playoffs will shape out, so take a look at our thoughts as you consider your sports betting strategy for the NFL Playoffs.
AFC
The only division which remains in any sort of play is the North, as the Ravens “only” have a 79% chance to win the division. The Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns have emergency quarterback options in play; the Bengals are left with Jake Browning after Joe Burrow’s wrist injury, and the Browns went and found Joe Flacco on his couch when P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson couldn’t move the Browns’ offense in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder surgery. The other three divisions have basically been wrapped up by the Chiefs, Dolphins and Jaguars.
One interesting game this week features Denver and Houston – both teams have 6-5 records, and both are perched on the edge of the playoff race. The teams meet down in Texas, but the Broncos ride in with a five-game winning streak after a horrendous 1-5 start. The Texans are slight favorites to win at home, but I like the Broncos because of their greater experience and the superior job they are doing finishing games at this point.
Jacksonville is another team to watch; currently, the Jaguars sit at 8-3, seeded third in the AFC behind Baltimore (9-3) and Kansas City (8-3). Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker against Miami (8-3) because it holds superior strength of victory. Could they get the top seed? They’ve only done it once – back in 1999, when they went 14-2 in the regular season but lost at home in the AFC Championship to Tennessee. They have the eight-easiest schedule the rest of the way; Baltimore has the third-hardest, and the Chiefs have the 15th-hardest. Jacksonville hosts Baltimore on December 17, and that outcome could be an important tiebreaker. Trevor Lawrence is heating up like he did last year, when the Jaguars started the year 3-7 but then reeled off six wins in seven games to finish at 9-8 and win the division. This year, he has completed 67.1% of his passes with a 3:1 TD:INT ratio and 626 yards over the last two games, and he has run for three touchdowns as well. If this trend continues, the Jaguars could well end up with the bye. They’ve also won eight in a row in the road, a streak that leads the NFL.
NFC
The East (Philadelphia), the West (San Francisco), and the North (Detroit) division titles are basically in the bag. The South is the pu pu platter of the conference, with New Orleans and Atlanta tied atop the division with identical 5-6 records.
Keep an eye on this week’s San Francisco-Philadelphia game. The Eagles had to expend a lot of energy to come back and win at Arrowhead Stadium two weeks ago and then to come back and force overtime in the home win over Buffalo. The 49ers come in with 10 days of rest as they last played on Thanksgiving – and they have plenty of motivation after the way that loss in Philadelphia went in the NFC Championship last year, as the Eagles knocked out Brock Purdy and the 49er offense was basically unable to throw the ball after that. If the Eagles can overcome all of those factors and win, they might just be unstoppable.
There has been some buzz about the Minnesota Vikings snagging a wild-card berth in the playoffs thanks to the arrival of Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. It looks like his honeymoon has come to an end; after two terrific starts, he just melted down against Chicago on Monday night, throwing four interceptions. He did lead a late touchdown drive to give the Vikings a 10-9 lead, but the Minnesota defense could not keep the Bears from driving for a game-winning field goal. However, that defense had to be exhausted after the poor showing the Minnesota offense put up for much of the game, and that unit did force two turnovers and kept the Bears from scoring a touchdown. Justin Jefferson should be back at wide receiver after their bye in Week 13, but coach Kevin O’Connell did not guarantee that Dobbs would start at quarterback at that point.
