A lot of sports betting prognosticators (including this one) thought that we would see a rematch of last year’s AFC divisional playoff in this year’s AFC Championship, with the Buffalo Bills taking that next step toward a Super Bowl. However, what we saw instead was the Cincinnati Bengals doing what they did last year, only at a higher level – knocking off another playoff foe in pursuit of a Super Bowl berth. The Bengals didn’t just to go to Buffalo and win; they got elite protection and run-blocking from an offensive line with just two starters, and they got surgical passing from Joe Burrow. Their next challenge is a team they’ve beaten three times in a row, with two of those wins coming at Arrowhead Stadium: the Kansas City Chiefs. The line on this game opened with the Chiefs favored before swinging to favor Cincinnati by as much as a point and a half, but now the action is moving back in Kansas City’s direction. Which way should you go? Check out our advice for NFL Playoffs betting.
NFL Preview: AFC Championship (Sunday, January 29)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, January 29, 2023, 6:30 pm ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: CBS
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Kansas City -1 / O/U 47 // Kansas City -120 / Cincinnati +100
→ Why should you bet on the Bengals?
The Bengals come in with plenty of confidence – and plenty of motivation. In an interview last week, quarterback Joe Burrow was asked if he was worried about his Super Bowl window closing, and he responded that his window would stay open as long as he was playing. That firm belief has propelled Burrow to a state championship in high school, a national championship with LSU and a Super Bowl berth with the Bengals last season. This time around, even with three offensive line starters out, the team has gotten terrific running games out of Samaji Perine and Joe Mixon, and Burrow has faced less pressure in the playoffs than he did last year.
In last year’s AFC Championship, the Bengals came back from an 18-point deficit and won, 27-24, in overtime. Cincinnati has beaten Kansas City three times in a row, including a regular-season win earlier this season. The defense shut down the Chiefs in the third and fourth quarters of these three wins, and with Mahomes’ mobility limited, the Bengals are likely to do just what the Jaguars did when he came back into the game – load up on the running game and bottle up Isaiah Pacheco, forcing the Chiefs into second- and third-and-long situations – and then get the pass rush rolling toward Mahomes.
→ Why should you put your money on the Chiefs?
The Chiefs’ fortunes, at least on paper, depend on the health of Patrick Mahomes. News of his high ankle sprain pushed the line in the Bengals’ direction, but when he had more mobility than some had expected in practice, the line went back the other way. People who think that Mahomes is the only one who can lead the Chiefs to victory, of course, are overlooking the 98-yard scoring drive that backup quarterback Chad Henne led the Chiefs on against Jacksonville in the divisional playoff – the longest postseason touchdown drive in franchise history – while Mahomes was getting his ankle treated.
We know that, when Mahomes is at his best, no other quarterback can match what he does. He can move around in the pocket and make throws back across his body and down the field that few other gunslingers in the league can pull off. What about the Chiefs’ defense, though? They yielded 20 points to a Jacksonville team that committed multiple turnovers and does not have the stout running game that Cincinnati has. If you think the Chiefs win, you think they can overwhelm Cincinnati’s backup-filled offensive line and keep Burrow from moving the ball – or you think they can win in a track meet.
→ Final Score and Prediction
Kansas City has held their last four opponents to an average of 16.8 points. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 18, 16, 17, and 10 points in their last four showdowns. With Cincinnati’s O-line missing starters and the Chiefs rolling with a limited starting quarterback, the “under” seems like a smart play – as does another Burrow win. I predict a final score of Cincinnati 23, Kansas City 17.
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
