Upsets were the order of the day in Super Wild Card Weekend this time around. It seemed like the Seattle Seahawks might knock off San Francisco, but the 49ers rallied from a one-point halftime deficit for an 18-point romp. After that win by the favorite, though, things got hairy as the Jacksonville Jaguars rallied from a 27-0 deficit to win, 31-30, knocking off the Chargers and notching the home upset. On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills rolled to a 17-0 lead before inexplicably collapsing. The Miami Dolphins rallied, but the Bills pulled away late for a three-point win – as the Dolphins covered. After that, the Giants went to Minnesota and knocked off the Vikings by seven, another upset win. The evening finished with a seven-point win for the Cincinnati Bengals, which was either a cover or a push, depending on your book. Monday saw Dallas head to Tampa Bay as a slight road favorite before laying down the wood in a 31-14 rout. With four underdogs and two favorites covering, what’s the best NFL betting strategy for the divisional round? Don’t miss our thoughts.
NFL News: Divisional Round Betting Predictions
→ Saturday, January 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 53) (4:30 pm ET, NBC)
Did you know that Andy Reid has a 28-5 coaching record coming out of a bye week (including regular-season byes and playoff games)? That winning percentage is even higher when he has had Patrick Mahomes at quarterback (9-1). In those 10 games, the Chiefs have scored a total of 301 points. Of course, Doug Pedersen knows Reid’s tendencies after having spent seven years with Reid as a player and assistant coach. The main issue for the Jaguars on defense is their inability to control the opposing tight end, and we know how central Travis Kelce is to the Chiefs’ attack. However, while the Chiefs should win, I’m not sure they can separate this much from a Jaguar offense that put up 31 in the second half against the Chargers. Can Trevor Lawrence avoid throwing four picks in the first half this time around? Yes, he can. Jaguars to cover.
N.Y. Giants (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 48) (8:15 pm ET, FOX)
The Eagles have a better defense and a better offense than the Giants do, and Jalen Hurts is a better quarterback than Daniel Jones. Yes, Jones put up huge numbers against the Vikings, but Dallas blew out Minnesota by 37, and Green Bay also humiliated the Vikes in Week 17. The Eagles outscored New York 70-38 in their two meetings (although the Week 18 meeting happened without Jones on the field).There is some chatter about how it being difficult to beat a team three times in one season. However, since 1970, 24 teams have swept a divisional opponent during the regular season and then seen them in the postseason. In those 24 games, the team that won 2-0 in the regular season also won the playoff matchup 15 times (62.5% of the time). I am worried about Hurts’ arm, and so the team should rely more on Miles Sanders to carry the ball. With their defense and the rest from the bye week, the Eagles should win this going away. Eagles to win and cover.
→ Sunday, January 22
Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 48) (3:00 pm ET, CBS)
It will have been just 20 days since these teams’ Week 17 showdown ended with the Bengals leading – but with the frightening heart attack of Damar Hamlin bringing the game to a close in the first quarter. This game should feature tons of offense, and Joe Burrow has a 23:3 TD:INT ratio against teams outside the AFC North. Both teams are 9-1 in their last ten games outside their division, but Burrow has been a better quarterback overall (Josh Allen has a 23:11 TD:INT ratio in those same ten contests). In the fourth quarter in 2022, Burrow has completed 12.2% more of his passes, thrown for 139 more yards, five more touchdowns and two fewer interceptions. Bengals to cover, take the over.
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers (O/U 46.5) (6:00 pm ET, FOX)
The Cowboys lost to San Francisco in the wild-card round last year, as Mike McCarthy’s troubles with clock management reared their ugly head. This time around, both teams are actually better. However, the 49ers went 7-0 against NFC West teams (including their wild-card round win over Seattle) and 7-4 against the rest of the league. Brock Purdy has looked elite at quarterback, but he hasn’t faced a top defense. Dallas can bring a top defense, if they decide to stop the run and cover receivers down the field. They did both against Tampa Bay and won in a laugher. Only four rookie quarterbacks have ever advanced to a conference championship, but I think Purdy can become the fifth despite what Christian McCaffrey brings to the offense. 49ers to win and cover.
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