When it comes to NFL betting, the first week of the preseason is definitely a wild ride. Most of your established veterans will only play a series or two, if they play at all, especially at the skill positions. Teams only use limited parts of their playbooks as they want to keep their season schemes close to the vest. So you’re likely to see a game that turns out a lot like the Hall of Fame Game from last week, where the Cleveland Browns beat the New York Jets, 21-16. However, we didn’t hear from Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson. We didn’t hear from Nick Chubb or Breece Hall. The touchdown passes for Cleveland came from the likes of Kellen Mond and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and while Zach Wilson threw a cool bomb for the Jets, he only had five attempts on the night. Similar trends should roll out in the full opening preseason week. We do have some suggestions for you, should you choose to wager, based on our knowledge of team trends in the preseason.
NFL Preseason Betting News: Week 1 Losers
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
When: Thursday, August 10 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
Did you know that Bill Belichick has about a 66 percent winning percentage in preseason openers? That drops significantly by Week 4, but overall his preseason winning percentage is about 52. He has said in interviews that he doesn’t really pay much attention to preseason games, but this metric says that someone is paying attention. Patriots to cover.
Bet on the Houston Texans (-1.5) at New England Patriots (O/U 39)
Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
When: Thursday, August 10 at 10:00 pm ET
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
Pete Carroll is another head coach who does well in the preseason, although he is more open about his desire to win these games than is Belichick. The Seahawks have more to prove as a rising team, while the Vikings are likely to keep Kirk Cousins on the bench to avoid injury. Seahawks to win and cover.
Bet on the Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks (O/U 35)
N.Y. Giants vs Detroit Lions
When: Friday, August 11 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
TV / Streaming: –
Brian Daboll has a 2-1 career record in his preseason, but given the propensity that Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley have for getting injured, I expect Daboll’s approach to be very conservative with his top skill players. The Lions are coming out of a huge finish to 2022 and want to build momentum heading into this regular season. Lions to cover.
Bet on the N.Y. Giants (-3) at Detroit Lions (O/U 36.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: Friday, August 11 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV / Streaming: –
Baker Mayfield’s backup in Tampa Bay is…Kyle Trask. Mitch Trubisky is the primary backup in Pittsburgh. That gives the Steelers a bit of an edge, and the Steelers’ defensive scheme was better last season. Steelers to cover.
Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 39.5)
Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals
When: Friday, August 11 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
Joe Burrow won’t touch the playing field, and the other skill players are likely to rest as well. I don’t expect a whole lot of touches for Jordan Love as the Packers don’t have a lot of depth at quarterback either. Bengals to cover.
Bet on the Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 35.5)
Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins
When: Friday, August 11 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV / Streaming: –
I see the Falcons pushing harder on offense as Desmond Ridder needs to establish himself as a franchise quarterback – and the Dolphins playing a conservative plan, keeping Tua Tagovailoa far from another big hit. Falcons to win and cover.
Bet on the Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins (O/U 36.5)
Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns
When: Friday, August 11 at 7:30 pm ET
Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
TV / Streaming: –
The Browns’ backups were able to muster three scoring drives against Green Bay last week, and they have the edge of having played a game already. Browns to win and cover.
Bet on the Washington Commanders (+1.5) at Cleveland Browns (O/U 38.5)
Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals
When: Friday, August 11 at 10:00 pm ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
The Arizona Cardinals are a mess, but both teams have new head coaches, and the Broncos should give Russell Wilson rest for almost the whole games, if not all four quarters. Denver has a better defense – and better depth. Broncos to win and cover.
Bet on the Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals (O/U 37.5)
Tennessee Titans vs Chicago Bears
When: Saturday, August 12 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
The Titans have Will Levis and Malik Willis to sort between at quarterback, while the Bears are banking on Justin Fields and will likely keep him off the field after the first drive of the game. The Titans will also likely rest Derrick Henry. Titans to cover.
Bet on the Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U 37.5)
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills
When: Saturday, August 12 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV / Streaming: –
The starting skill players for both of these teams should not see the field, but the Colts should show some of what Anthony Richardson should do as Gardner Minshew is the presumptive starting quarterback. Colts to win and cover.
Bet on the Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills (O/U 39)
N.Y. Jets vs Carolina Panthers
When: Saturday, August 12 at 4:00 pm ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
I don’t expect to see Aaron Rodgers at all in this game, but I do expect to see a series or too for Bryce Young. Overall, the Jets have the better schemes on both sides of the ball. Jets to cover.
Bet on the N.Y. Jets (+3.5) at Carolina Panthers (O/U 37.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys
When: Saturday, August 12 at 5:00 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
TV / Streaming: –
Dallas tends to fade in preseason games, with player development much more important than competitiveness at this point. Jacksonville is a young team that is on the rise, looking to build momentum. Jaguars to win and cover.
Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 37.5)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Baltimore Ravens
When: Saturday, August 12 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
Neither team has much to prove in this game; the Ravens want to keep Lamar Jackson healthy, and Jalen Hurts has shown he is elite at this level. Eagles to cover.
Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Baltimore Ravens (O/U 35.5)
L.A. Chargers vs L.A. Rams
When: Saturday, August 12 at 9:00 pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
The Chargers are the better team in terms of talent on both sides of the ball, and I don’t expect the Rams to show us Matthew Stafford at all. Chargers to cover.
Bet on the L.A. Chargers (+3) at L.A. Rams (O/U 33.5)
Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saint
When: Sunday, August 13 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
The Chiefs are basically on cruise control until the regular season at this point, while the Saints have more work to do to install their system and get the Derek Carr era off to a solid start. Saints to win and cover.
Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at New Orleans Saints (O/U 37.5)
San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders
When: Sunday, August 13 at 4:00 pm ET
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
TV / Streaming: NFL NET
Jimmy Garoppolo’s last team and his current team meet on the Strip, but given his lingering foot injury, he’s not likely at all to play. The same goes for Brock Purdy, which means this could have a lot to do with Trey Lance squaring off with Jarrett Stidham. Raiders to cover.
Bet on the San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 36)
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