Obviously, two of the most popular sports betting choices for NFL games are the outcome against the point spread and/or the moneyline, as well as the point total. However, there are a lot of other prop bets that you can turn to your advantage, and the more granular you get, the more money you can make, as some of the more secondary props are set without as much awareness of the game conditions and other factors.
Take a look at some NFL betting we recommend for the coming weekend.
NFL News: Prop Betting in the Wild Card Round
Buffalo QB Josh Allen: Over/Under 250.5 Passing Yards
Did you know that Josh Allen has not thrown for more than 250 yards at home since Week 3? Since Week 11, when we pushed past mid-November, he has averaged 185 yards per game through the air at home. The forecast for Saturday night’s game with New England calls for temperatures near zero and has a 30 percent chance of snow. This might not be as bad as the Patriots’ earlier visit to Buffalo, when the winds were so tough that Mac Jones only attempted three passes, but conditions aren’t favorable for a pass-oriented track meet.
In other words, you should take the under.
Other related props include Mac Jones over/under 200.5 passing yards. On average, teams have thrown for 140 yards per game. If you take out Jones’ 19-yard performance on that windy night during the regular season, the average only climbs to 155. So here, you should also take the under.
What about receivers? You can get Stefon Diggs over/under 75.5 receiving yards and Cole Beasley over/under 33.5 receiving yards. Diggs has broken that number in just one home game since Week 11, and that came in Week 18 against the New York Jets. In that game, Diggs had to hit some numbers in order to earn some contract incentives. For Diggs, I would take the under. For Beasley, he has not had more than 25 receiving yards in his last three games against New England. However, all it would take is one big play for Beasley to wreck that under prop, so for now I’m staying away from that prop.
NFC vs AFC Teams
NFC -10.5 / AFC +10.5
In other words, the NFC teams are picked to score a combined 10.5 more points than the AFC teams, and you would take the over/under. Cincinnati has a forecast of 32 on Saturday, and New England will visit Buffalo on an extremely cold, possibly snowy night. Cincinnati does have a high-octane offense, but those lower temperatures tend to reduce scores. The Sunday forecast for Kansas City is currently a high of 34 with partly cloudy coverage, but Saturday has a forecast of snow and a low of 11 that night, so the playing surface could still get interesting.
The three NFC games are either in domed stadiums or in warm-weather cities (Tampa Bay). Even though all 12 teams in the wild card (with the possible exception of Pittsburgh) can be expected to bring high-octane offenses, just the difference in the conditions tells me to take the over.
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