As we move into Week 4 of the 2020 NFL regular season, we should start to see more consistency from the 32 teams, as the normal function of allowing the offenses and defenses to sort things out that the preseason normally performs has taken the first few weeks of the regular season this year. Once we get through Week 4, we will have hit the quarter-pole of the regular season, with some teams propelled toward a likely postseason berth and others already taking on water.
Take a look at some sports betting trends ahead of NFL Week 4 that should help your wagering choices.
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Rundown Before Week 4
In the Thursday night game, this week, the Denver Broncos visit the New York Jets. Despite the fact that the Broncos will have backup quarterback Jeff Driskel at the helm, they are three-point favorites on the road. Denver has won just six of their last 27 road games straight up. You might be tempted to go with the Jets as home underdogs, but remember how dreadful the Jets looked against a San Francisco team also guided by a backup quarterback. The over/under total for this game is just 40 points right now, and given this game is on a Thursday, and given that Denver’s last 22 games against AFC opponents have ended up “under,” I see the Broncos grinding out a close win on the road, just enough to cover. If that line slides up to 4 or 5 points, though, I’m thinking about taking the Jets as a home underdog.
One of Sunday’s games has Indianapolis heading to Chicago as road favorites. The Bears have started 3-0 despite not having a consistent quarterback. They have skated on thin ice, as they have covered just four times in their last 15 games. However, when they place as a home underdog, since 2016 they have covered in 11 of 15 games. If we add to this the fact that the Colts have lost six consecutive road games and eight of their last 11. Also, the Colts have covered just twice in their last eight games as favorites on the road. Chicago’s defense can also clamp down — and Philip Rivers is due another backbreaking interception. So for now, I like the Bears to cover at home.
A bizarre game will feature Pittsburgh visiting Tennessee. The Titans shut down football operations on Tuesday because of an outbreak of COVID-19 in the organization, pausing matters until Saturday. Pittsburgh has had no such problems, at least not yet, so they will have a significant advantage in preparation over the 3-0 Titans. Pittsburgh is also unbeaten, and I see them turning a normal week of practice into an edge that helps the Steelers winning and covering. However, the current line (Pittsburgh -1 ½) could shift dramatically, so you might want to jump on the action now.
The Cleveland Browns visit the Dallas Cowboys in one of the early games. Cleveland brings a 2-1 record to face a 1-2 Cowboys team that is one bizarre onside kick away from an 0-3 start to the Mike McCarthy era. The road has been a tough place for the Browns, where they have gone 4-34 over their last 38 contests. Dallas has covered just twice in their last 11 Week 4 contests, but the Browns have a pounding running game that will take advantage of weaknesses in the interior of the Dallas defense. I’m taking Cleveland to cover.
New Orleans visits Detroit looking to end a two-game losing streak. October has been a helpful month for bettors on Saints games, as they have won 12 consecutive October contests and covered in 20 of their 22 October games since 2015. Detroit has only won one game straight up in twelve times. So even though Detroit knocked off Arizona last week, the smart money here is still on the Saints.
NFL Week 4 | Check the Odds
