The Buffalo strategy in the offseason was to prepare for Kansas City, and prepare they did. In the divisional playoff last year, the Bills scored a go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds left in regulation, but the Bills’ defense was so exhausted that the Chiefs were able to get within field-goal range and send the game to overtime. In Week 6, the Bills scored with 1:04 remaining in regulation to go up four, and Taron Johnson picked off a Patrick Mahomes pass to seal the win for the Bills. Off-season addition Von Miller sacked Mahomes on the Chiefs’ next-to-last drive to force a punt and also forced a rushed throw on the ball Johnson would pick off. It also helped that Josh Allen played like an MVP, going 27 of 40 for 329 yars and three touchdowns and making some key plays against the blitz. Let’s look at your top sports betting picks for Week 7.
NFL News: Sure Winners for Week 7
→ Sunday, October 23
N.Y. Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
(1:00 pm ET, FOX)
How is a 5-1 team that has beaten the Packers and the Ravens an underdog to a 2-4 team that has lost three in a row? Well, the Jaguars did beat Indianapolis and the Chargers by a combined score of 62-10 in Weeks 2 and 3, and they hung with Philadelphia on the road and stayed with the Colts in the road rematch. The Giants do it with their offense, as Saquon Barkley has finally recovered from injuries so that he can play like the monster that he was in his rookie season. Quarterback Daniel Jones had the fifth year of his rookie deal waived, so he is playing in his contract season – and his propensity to turn the ball over has finally eased.
The Jaguars permit just 89.3 yards per game on the ground, which ranks third in the NFL. If they can put the clamps on Barkley, that would force Jones to beat them. That sounds like the right strategy, but Jones has been much better this year so far. Jacksonville has also dropped 18 in a row against NFC opposition (going 2-16 against the spread in those games). I’m more impressed by what the Giants have done in recent weeks than what I have seen out of the Jaguars, at this point. Giants to cover.
N.Y. Jets (PK) at Denver Broncos
(4:05 pm ET, CBS)
The Denver Broncos score the fewest points in the NFL, despite getting Russell Wilson from Seattle in the off-season. The problems could stem from Wilson, as he is dealing with a hamstring and shoulder injury, which keeps him from scrambling and is hampering his ability to throw accurately down the field. The play-calling has not been ideal, third down seems like an automatic prelude to a punt, and the red zone execution is dreadful. Remember that one of their wins came thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo accidentally stepping out of the end zone.
The Jets will bring Sauce Gardner, one of the top rookie cornerbacks in the league, and Quinnen Williams, a defensive tackle who is wreaking havoc week in and week out. In Week 6, he became just the second NFL player since 2000 to notch three tackles, a sack, two quarterback hits, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble and a blocked field goal – all in the same half. He did this against the Green Bay Packers. This feels like it has the potential for a low-scoring war, but remember that the Jets just clamped down on the Green Bay Packers to win at Lambeau last week. The Broncos have a bit more desperation, because a loss would send them to 2-5 – and would put their season on the brink, while the Jets are still playing with house money. Teams with nothing to lose, though, have the freedom to take risks – and those risks pay off. Jets to win.
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