The advent of the Carson Wentz Era in Indianapolis looked like it might not begin until November, as a foot problem that was years old needed surgery as a repair. That left Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger as the other quarterbacks on the roster. However, Wentz’s recovery has sped along, and he is projected to start on Sunday. As a starter in Philadelphia, Wentz was 32-37 against the spread, but 2020 was a particularly dreadful year for him, as he threw 15 interceptions (tying him for the dubious honor of leading the league) despite only playing in a dozen games. Can reuniting with Frank Reich help Wentz get back to the MVP-level form of his early career? We’ll know more after Sunday’s matchup with the visiting Seattle Seahawks.
Read on to get our NFL betting prediction.
NFL Preview: Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, September 12)
When: Sunday, September 12, 2021, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: FOX
Radio: KIRO 97.3 FM Seattle / WOWO 1190 AM Indianapolis
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Seattle -2.5 / O/U 48.5
Why should you bet on the Seahawks?
Let’s see — Carson Wentz returned early from foot surgery. He has historically been a mobile quarterback, but don’t expect to see him unleashed on foot in the opener. HIs top wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, is on injured reserve and will be out for a minimum of three games. There’s also the fact that Russell Wilson is 12-1 straight up in his last 13 games played in the Eastern time zone and 21-11-2 against the spread in his career for games three hours ahead of his home in SEattle. No other road quarterback in NFL history has covered at a better percentage (with a minimum of 20 starts).
Wilson got his top pass protector back, as left tackle Duane Brown ended his holdout for a new deal and came back to practice Monday. The team did rework the numbers a bit, and he will start on Sunday. The Colts do have a decent secondary, but Wilson started 2020 averaging almost 300 yards through the air per week. If the Seahawks can get pressure on Wentz, they should force him into quick throws and maybe even a turnover or two.
Why should you put your money on the Colts?
Yes, Seattle’s offense was high-octane to start 2020, but then it fell off the table down the stretch and became a turnover machine. Indianapolis was extremely adept at swiping turnovers in 2020, and their defense is largely the same. Their pass rush was an area of concern, but they drafted Kwity Paye to help get pressure, so that area of their attack should be improved.
If you like the Colts, then you will be paying especially close attention to tailback Jonathan Taylor. Expect a conservative passing game and a largely immobile Carson Wentz, so Taylor will have to find holes in order to loosen up the defense for play-action plays and other passing sets. I expect him to get at least 20 carries and at least 30 touches. The response Seattle has to Taylor will determine which team wins — as will the degree to which Carson Wentz can avoid poor decisions and turnovers.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Normally, a West Coast team playing early in the Eastern time zone is a tough pick, simply because of the jet lag. However, Russell Wilson’s numbers in this position make this a poor decision. I don’t expect a lot out of a rusty Carson Wentz in the opener, and while the Colts’ defense will get some stops, the Colts don’t have the quick-score capacity that the Seahawks bring. I predict a final score of Seahawks 23, Colts 16.
NFL Betting Odds
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