Super Bowl 53 Money Line Betting Pick

When you bet against the moneyline on a sporting event, your sports betting doesn’t have anything to do with the point spread. Instead, you’re betting on the outcome straight up, and the degree to which one team is favored over the other is reflected in the moneyline. At this writing, the moneyline on Super Bowl LIII is Los Angeles +115 / New England -139. This means that if you bet $100 on the Rams, you’ll win $115 and walk away with $215 total. A $139 bet on the Patriots would win you $100, so you’d walk away with $239. This differential reflects the fact that the Patriots are favored to win the game, so picking them straight up has less value for you — and less risk for the bookmaker. How should you pick in this matchup? Take a look at our thoughts.

Super Bowl 53 Money Line Betting Pick

Which #SBLIII team has the better defense? (by @EAMaddenNFL)

— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2019

When: February 3rd, 2019. 6:30pm ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta, Georgia TV: CBS Radio: New England / Los Angeles Live Stream: NFL Live Super Bowl LIII Odds: Patriots -120 / Rams +100 A lot of people thought that the New England Patriots would fall in Kansas City to the Chiefs, and they almost did despite taking a 14-0 lead to the locker room at halftime. However, a fortuitous offsides call against Chiefs linebacker Dee Ford wiped an interception off the books, and the Patriots drove down the field to score the winning touchdown in overtime. The initial spread in Super Bowl LIII had the Rams favored to win by a single point despite the fact that the Rams needed a missed pass interference call in the waning minutes of regulation to stall a Saints drive that otherwise would have run the clock out for a New Orleans win to force overtime before taking the win. In this game, the difference at quarterback is the place to start when you consider your moneyline pick. Yes, Tom Brady had some off moments this year, particularly on the road, but the Patriots went 4-0 in the regular season against teams that made the playoffs. Then they undressed the Chargers at home in the divisional round and outdueled the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. His checkdowns and his throws into tight windows on third and long on those game-changing drives late are what separate him from the league’s other quarterbacks.

Who’s Got an Upper Hand?

This year, the Patriots also have a rushing element in Sony Michel. He has run for 242 yards in the two playoff games, and the Patriots have run for 331 yards combined. Tailback James White comes out of the backfield to catch passes too, and he had 15 catches for 97 yards against the Chargers. Having that running game to balance Brady’s passing keeps opposing defenses honest. Rob Gronkowski is looking like a creaky version of his former self, but he made what may have been the toughest catch in the AFC Championship, catching a ball on third-and-long to move the Pats in range for that winning score. He also took part in the blocking scheme when needed. Julian Edelman caught pass after tough pass — although he did come millimeters from muffing a punt that also would have led to a Patriots win.

Who’s the Better Coach?

Finally, there’s head coaching experience. Sean McVay of the Rams was just two days old when Bill Belichick won his first Super Bowl ring on the New York Giants’ coaching staff, as Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator. Belichick is now looking for his sixth Super Bowl ring since 2000, as he and the Patriots have put together the greatest long-term juggernaut in the history of the NFL. As innovative as McVay is on offense, he’s not used to coaching at this level, and despite the adjustments that he made in the NFC Championship, if that pass interference gets called like it should have, we’d be talking about how Sean Payton outcoached McVay. So here’s the skinny: New England will win this game. They might win it on the last drive of the game, in historical Brady fashion. So even though the Patriots offer less value, they are the better pick with the moneyline the way it is. About two of every three betting dollar on this game has gone toward the Patriots, so it would be wise to get your money in now before the moneyline changes.