Super Bowl 53 Spread Betting Pick

The point spread for Super Bowl LIII opened at Los Angeles -1 in the minutes after New England eliminated Kansas City in overtime during the AFC Championship. However, a flood of money poured in on the New England side of the bet, pushing the line to where it sits now, at New England -2.5. If you’re new to sports betting against the spread, that means if you pick New England, they need to win the game by at least three points for you to win your wager. If they win by fewer than three points or if the Rams win, then you would lose your money. Still on the fence as to how you should wager? Take a look at our perspective on this matchup.

Super Bowl 53 Spread Betting Pick

These 10 stats could tip the scales in #SBLIII: https://t.co/q6F99rrshV (via @cfrelund) pic.twitter.com/41hefAIdvt

— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2019

 When: February 3rd, 2019. 6:30pm ET Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta, Georgia TV: CBS Radio: New England / Los Angeles Live Stream: NFL Live Super Bowl LIII Odds: Patriots -2.5 / Rams +2.5

The Patriots and the Super Bowl Spread

We’re not going to go all the way back to Super Bowl XX, when the Chicago Bears dealt the New England Patriots a 46-10 whipping. Instead, we’re going to focus on the Bill Belichick era, starting with Super Bowl XXXVI and moving forward. In that game, the Patriots were 14-point underdogs to the Greatest Show on Turf (the Kurt Warner-led St. Louis Rams). However, tom Brady led what would become one of his patented comeback drives and the Patriots kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired — so they covered. However, in their next two appearances, in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX, New England was favored to win by seven points over Carolina and Philadelphia, respectively. The Patriots won both games, but covered neither. In Super Bowl XLII, the Pats came in undefeated and were favored to knock off the Giants by a dozen points, but they ended up losing straight up — and not covering, of course. That was the game featuring the famous catch by Giants wideout David Tyree, pinning the ball to his helmet — and the last catch Tyree would make in the NFL. In Super Bowl XLVI, the Giants and Patriots met again, and New England was favored by 2 ½ points but lost by four.

What Has Happened Before?

In Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots beat the Seahawks by four in a pick’em contest, and then in Super Bowl LI, they were favored to beat Atlanta by three and roared back from a 25-point deficit to win by six in overtime. Last year, the Patriots were favored to beat Philadelphia by four points but lost by eight. So all told, New England has gone to eight Super Bowls in the Bill Belichick era, and they have covered three times. However, they have only covered once as a favorite, in six opportunities. I think with a 2 ½-point spread, picking the Patriots makes a lot more sense than it would if it were a four-point spread, just because I see the Patriots mounting another one of those game-winning drives to send the Rams home losers, and a winning field goal would almost certainly cover that spread.

Why?

Well, the Rams had a hard time stopping the Saints late. Yes, they came back and won, but there were two second-half drives in which the Saints had an argument that a drive in Rams territory should have continued, but there was no pass interference called. On the Drew Brees interception in overtime, the Rams defender interfered with the Saints’ receiver, and the ball was not tipped — Drew Brees’ arm was hit as it went forward. So that makes three drives that should have gone the Saints’ way, but none of them did. It’s hard to see that sort of luck going the Rams’ way again, given how many lucky breaks the Patriots seem to get, time after time. So I’m taking the Patriots to win and cover here. The Rams will push New England hard, but Brady and Belichick will have the answer when they need it most.