Since the opening lines were released a week ago Sunday, the point total for over/under betting on Super Bowl LVII has edged up to 50.5, as early action came in heavy on the “over” side. This trend is interesting, given that in the last four Super Bowls, the teams have come in “under.” This includes Super Bowl LV, when both Kansas City and Tampa Bay came in with high-flying offenses, but the Buccaneers’ pass rush shut down Patrick Mahomes, and the Buccaneers rolled to a 31-9 laugher – 16 ½ points under the betting total. The last time a Super Bowl ended up over the total came in Super Bowl LII, when Philadelphia beat New England, 41-33, in a game that ended up 25 points over the total. We think that the game will go over the total this time around – and here’s why.
NFL Betting: The Top Reasons You Should Bet the Over in Super Bowl LVII
Both offenses were elite in scoring in 2022
The Kansas City Chiefs led the league in scoring this season, averaging 29.2 points per game in the regular season. They stayed near that total in the divisional playoff, scoring 27 points against Jacksonville despite having Patrick Mahomes significantly limited with a high ankle sprain. They scored 23 points in the AFC Championship against Cincinnati. The Philadelphia Eagles scored 28.1 points per game in the regular season and scored 69 combined points in wins over the Giants and the 49ers in their playoff games. So when it came to putting points on the board, both teams have the capacity to meet and exceed the point total.
Philadelphia can dominate defenses on the ground and through the air
One of the key player transactions in the last off-season was a trade that sent wide receiver A.J. Brown from Tennessee to Philadelphia. By losing this receiver, we saw the Titans’ offense crater during the second half of the regular season, while the Eagles got a needed jolt to their passing game. We still have questions about Jalen Hurts’ ability to hit Brown and other receivers with deep balls, as the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 15 clearly hindered his ability to get the ball down the field in Week 18 and in the divisional playoff win over the Giants, although the Eagles’ dominance in both playoff games made that sort of passing really unnecessary. On the ground, Miles Sanders had a huge season for the Eagles, and Hurts did a lot of damage in the running game himself in both playoff wins.
Kansas City still has elite playmakers in the passing game
Losing Tyreek Hill to Miami in the off-season was a major blow to the Chiefs’ passing game. You don’t just run out and grab other receivers off the street to replace the speed that Hill brings to the game. However, the receivers that the Chiefs found – JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling, most notably – fit nicely in the scheme and made huge contributions during the season. Also, Travis Kelce stayed around and had another elite season at tight end. In fact, if he has another one of his signature multi-touchdown games in the Super Bowl, he could become the first tight end ever to win a Super Bowl MVP award. He has a way of finding his way into seams in the defense, and with his size and speed, he is hard to cover as a target – and hard to bring down once he has it.
Both quarterbacks will have had time to heal
Week 15 – when Hurts injured his shoulder – is now seven weeks in the past and will be eight when the Chiefs and Eagles take the field. That’s a lot of time to get treatment, so if the damage is not too structural in nature, he should be more comfortable making the types of field-stretching throws that make the offense more dangerous. Mahomes had a high ankle sprain against Jacksonville, but he was mobile enough to make key plays against Cincinnati one week later. With two additional weeks to rest and receive treatment, Mahomes should be a lot more comfortable throwing on the run and scrambling – especially with a world championship on the line.
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