By the time the two conference championships square off in the Super Bowl 58, you might expect that you would end up with a contest with a tight point spread. Sometimes that’s true – last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were 1 ½-point underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles but won straight up. This time around, they are 2-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. Does it make sense to back underdogs historically, though? Let’s consider some trends that you may not have thought about as you set up your online betting strategy for Super Bowl LVIII.
NFL Betting Analysis: Super Bowl Betting – Favorites vs Underdogs
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Did you know that underdogs have covered in 15 of the last 22 Super Bowls? A $100 bet on the underdog over the last 22 Super Bowls would have given you an overall profit of $854.41.
Did you also know that the winner of the Super Bowl almost always covers the spread – whether the winner turns out to have been the favorite or the underdog? In 57 Super Bowls, the straight-up winner has also gone 48-7-2 against the spread. Here are the seven teams that won straight up but failed to cover:
- L.A. Rams, Super Bowl LVI (-4.5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers, XLIII (-7)
- New England Patriots, XXXIX (-7)
- New England Patriots, XXXVIII (-7)
- Dallas Cowboys, XXX (-13.5)
- San Francisco 49ers, XXIII (-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers, X (-7)
The two teams to push were the St. Louis Rams (XXXIV) and the Green Bay Packers (XXXI). So if you like San Francisco to beat Kansas City as a slight favorite, go ahead and give the points, because your value improves. If you like the Chiefs, though, take the moneyline – for the same reason.
Another trend that you might consider here involves Super Bowl rematches. When the teams meet again, the underdog tends to cover. This isn’t as big of a sample, but we saw this in the following matchups:
- Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots (2005, 2018) – Eagles covered as underdogs in the rematch
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys (1976, 1979, 1996) – Steelers covered as favorites in 1979 and then covered as underdogs in 1996
- Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders (1973, 1983) – Washington won straight up as the underdogs in the rematch.
- San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals (1982, 1989) – Bengals covered as underdogs in the rematch.
- New England Patriots and N.Y. Giants (2008, 2012) – G-men won straight up as underdogs in the rematch.
In the seven rematches, the favorites have gone just 2-5 against the spread. This time around, the Chiefs are the slight underdog against a team they beat four seasons ago in Super Bowl LIV.
If you look at the last 11 Super Bowls in which the NFC team was favored, they have gone just 1-8-2 against the spread. The year they did cover was Super Bowl XLV, when Green Bay covered as three-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you want to look at a wackier trend, if you look at the last nine Super Bowls with male leading performers in the halftime show (since Usher is the performer this year, this is relevant), the favorite has just covered once, back in Super Bowl LIII, when New England won, 13-3, as 2 ½-point favorites. Also, in the last six Super Bowls featuring a team trying to repeat as champions, the underdog has covered five times. The only exception came in Super Bowl XXXIII, when the Broncos rolled as 7 ½-point favorites over Atlanta.
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Super Bowl 57 Favorites vs Underdogs
NFL Super Bowl 57 Betting Analysis: Favorites vs Underdogs?
The point spread is not a factor in most NFL games. In other words, the favorite usually covers the spread, or the underdog wins straight up. The games in which a favorite wins straight up but does not cover the spread are rare. In the 2022 playoffs, six favorites have won and covered. Three underdogs have won outright, and three favorites have won but failed to cover, so this happened just 25% of the time in the postseason. Recent Super Bowl history shows that this trend is even more dominant. Let’s break this dynamic down as you plan your Super Bowl betting for Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Super Bowl LVI
Rams win, 23-20, over Cincinnati, fail to cover as 4 ½-point favorites
Super Bowl LV
Buccaneers win, 31-9, over Kansas City, cover as 1 ½-point favorites
Super Bowl LIV
Chiefs win, 31-20, over San Francisco, cover as 1 ½-point favorites
Super Bowl LIII
Patriots win, 13-3, over Los Angeles, cover as 2 ½-point favorites
Super Bowl LII
Patriots win, 34-28, over Atlanta, cover as 3-point favorites
Super Bowl 50
Broncos win, 24-10, over Carolina, win outright as 5-point underdogs
Super Bowl XLIX
Patriots win, 28-24, over Seattle, game was pick’em
Super Bowl XLVIII
Seahawks win, 43-8, over Denver, win outright as 2 ½-point underdogs
Super Bowl XLVII
Ravens win, 34-31, over San Francisco, win outright as 4 ½-point underdogs
Super Bowl XLVI
Giants win, 21-17, over New England, win outright as 2 ½-point underdogs
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In Super Bowl LVI, the Rams completed a comeback win when Cooper Kupp scored a touchdown with 1:25 remaining in regulation to give the Rams a 23-20 lead. Cincinnati had their last drive end on a fourth-down tackle by Aaron Donald. The Rams had been favored to win by 4 ½ points, making them the first favorite to win but fail to cover since 2009, when the Pittsburgh Steelers entered the game as seven-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals but won, 27-23. Santonio Holmes made a huge catch in the end zone to seal the win, and LaMarr Woodley strip-sacked Kurt Warner to get the ball back for the Steelers and cement the win.
So what’s the upshot of this? When the Super Bowl LVII line opened, the Kansas City Chiefs were favored by 1 ½ points. Since the opening, the line has shifted to make Philadelphia the favorite by the same margin. Because it is so rare for the spread to matter (particularly in a game with such a small spread), there’s really no reason to give points. If you like the Chiefs, pick them to win straight up. If you like the Eagles, give the points to get the extra value.
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