The perennial argument in the NFL is whether offense or defense is more effective in winning championships. Much is made of the Kansas City Chiefs getting to six straight AFC Championships and four Super Bowls in the last six years thanks to the offensive wizardry of Patrick Mahomes, but the truth is that the defensive improvements the Chiefs have made the last two seasons are why they have a chance at becoming the first repeat Super Bowl champs in 20 years. Even in games that are somewhat high-scoring, teams that can get key stops in crucial moments are the ones that will end up winning. Let’s look at some more granular numbers as you consider your NFL betting for Super Bowl LVIII.
NFL Betting Analysis: Defense vs Offense in Super Bowl Betting Chiefs vs 49ers
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Today’s NFL definitely rewards offense more than defense. The rules right now definitely favor wide receivers over defenders in terms of pass interference, as do rules protecting the quarterback as a ball-carrier. The last six Super Bowl champions have all had offenses ranked higher than their defenses, and the gap has grown. In 2020, the Tampa Bay offense was ranked five slots higher than their defense. In 2021, the Rams were ranked eight slots higher, and the 2022 Chiefs had the top-ranked offense – and the 16th-ranked defense. Five of the last six Super Bowl champs had an offense ranked in the TOp five, with the exception coming in 2021 against the Rams, but their seventh-ranked offense was well above their 15th-ranked defense.
There was a time, of course, when defense reigned supreme. Between 2000 and 2005, the average Super Bowl champ featured a defense ranked eight spots ahead of their offense (average defense: 2.3, average offense: 10.5). Three of the six Super Bowl winners had the top-ranked defense in the league (2000 Baltimore, 2002 Tampa Bay, 2003 New England). The 2004 Patriots were ranked second, the 2005 Steelers were ranked third, and the 2001 Patriots were ranked sixth. This could tell us that defense was a key element – or it could just be that the Patriots were that good then.
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
Between 2006 and 2015, though, neither quality offense nor defense really meant anything as far as Super Bowl prospects. During that ten-year run, the average Super Bowl champ ranked just 10.5 in the league for both points scored and points permitted. The 2007 and 2011 Giants were ranked 14th and 17th, respectively. Since the merger, only eight Super Bowl champs were ranked 10th or worse for combined offense and defense, and seven of those times came during this ten-year period. The 2006 Colts (12.5), the two Giants teams mentioned above, the 2008 Steelers (10.5), the 2009 Saints (10.5), the 2012 Ravens (11.0) and the 2015 Broncos (11.5) won Super Bowls even though their offensive and defensive rankings were not particularly impressive.
So how can that help you with your wagering choices for Super Bowl LVIII? Both of these teams can score, but the Chiefs have had more of a shutdown defense. The 49ers benefited from meltdowns by the Green Bay Packers, as the 49ers found a way to bury them. Their win over Detroit basically boiled down to four minutes of poor execution and decision-making that gave the 49ers a way back into the game.
On the other side of things, the Kansas City defense basically shut down the Buffalo Bills in the divisional playoff, limiting them to a field-goal attempt in the fourth quarter. Against Baltimore, they forced two key turnovers that kept the game in hand for them and limited the Ravens’ high-powered offense to just 10 points. Patrick Mahomes has cleaned up the passing game, and his receiving group has committed fewer drops. I like the Chiefs to win this time around, but this has as much to do with their stout defense on all three levels as it does with Mahomes Magic.
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