Right after the NFC and AFC Championship games, the early moneyline on the Super Bowl LII matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots was Philadelphia +185 / New England -225. How does that work? Well, to win $100, you would have had to put $325 down on the Patriots. However, a $100 bet on Philadelphia would bring you a total of $285 — your original wager back plus the line. However, those numbers have been shifting, most recently because of a $1 million bet that came in from one person Monday night, picking Philadelphia to win straight up. Now the moneyline in the Super Bowl LII odds is at Philadelphia +160 / New England -180.
Super Bowl LII Moneyline Betting Preview
When: Sunday, February 4, 2018, 6:30pm ETWhere: U.S. Bank Stadium, MinneapolisTV: NBCRadio: Westwood OneLive Stream: NFL LiveNFL Odds: New England -4.5, O/U 48
Should you take the Eagles +160?
Philadelphia was the underdog in the divisional round and the NFC Championship. They turned a three-point underdog spread into a five-point win over Atlanta and then turned another underdog spread into a 31-point spanking of Minnesota. With a moneyline bet, the point spread goes away, so you’re looking at the outcome. And can the Eagles beat the Patriots straight up?
If you consider the fact that Jacksonville was up by 10 until their offensive line froze and stopped blocking, and their defensive line stopped putting pressure on Brady, then of course it is possible for Philadelphia to win. Their quarterback, Nick Foles, has had a better postseason than Blake Bortles had. The Eagles have a better running tandem in Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount than what Jacksonville brought. They have a better wide receiving pair in Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery, and their tight end, Zach Ertz, has had a terrific run this season. The Eagles also have a better defense in terms of depth than Jacksonville, so that late fatigue shouldn’t be a factor — no defensive lineman for the Eagles has had to play more than 60 percent of the snaps so far, so there should be plenty of fresh legs.
Should you take the Patriots -180?
The only Super Bowls that the New England Patriots have lost in the Brady-Belichick era have been to the New York Giants. Tom Brady has the record for most playoff games started (36) and most playoff games won (27). Since 1960, Brady ranks second all-time in fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, with 54. That’s just two behind Peyton Manning. So even if the Eagles have the momentum early and build a lead, they will have to keep things going the whole game instead of getting tight late like the Jaguars did in the AFC Championship. Brady definitely has the personnel on offense. Targets include Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks down the field — and that’s assuming Rob Gronkowski doesn’t clear the concussion protocol. The backfield includes Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead. So there’s no reason why the Patriots don’t have enough options to move the chains.
What about that defense? The Patriots did take some lumps early, getting routed by Kansas City in Week One and also giving up more than 30 points to Carolina and Houston at home. However, in the second half of the season, they largely figured those issues out. Their pass rush put up a postseason record eight sacks against Tennessee in the divisional round and got to Blake Bortles three more times last week — and Foles isn’t the most mobile quarterback out there. So despite some secondary issues, the Patriots can get tough on defense when they need to.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
I love what the Eagles bring here, but I don’t see enough to bet against Tom Brady. In a point spread situation, I’m definitely taking the Eagles, but I see Brady leading that drive to take the win late. I predict a final score of New England 24, Philadelphia 23.
