When the Super Bowl line opened, the New England Patriots were favored by 5 ½ points to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII. That’s the largest point spread in nine years — in Super Bowl XLIII, the Atlanta Falcons came in as seven-point underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The money is coming in heavy on Philadelphia to win this game — with three times as much action on the Birds as on Pat Patriot — so as the week goes on, that number has edged down to 4 ½ and may even hit 4 points, depending on the dollar volume. As you consider your own Super Bowl LII spread for the big game, take a look at our thoughts about these NFL odds.
Super Bowl LII Spread Betting Pick
When: Sunday, February 4, 2018, 6:30pm ETWhere: U.S. Bank Stadium, MinneapolisTV: NBCRadio: Westwood OneLive Stream: NFL LiveSuper Bowl LII Spread: New England -4.5, O/U 48
Should you take the Eagles + 4 1/2 Super Bowl LII spread?
Frankly, the difference between the straight-up wager and the point spread wager is usually nil as far as the Super Bowl goes. There have only been six games in the 51 previous Super Bowls when the team that won the game didn’t cover the spread as well. However, since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came to New England in 2001, Super Bowl favorites have only won seven of the 15 Super Bowls, and they have only covered the spread four times over that frame. This excludes Super Bowl XLIX, when New England and Seattle were a pick’em matchup.
When Philadelphia met New England in Super Bowl XXXIX, the Patriots were favored by seven, but only won by three — one of the rare times when the game winner did not cover. But most of the players in that game are not around anymore, and the Eagles’ coaching staff has turned over a couple of times since then. If you think the Eagles’ defense will come out and play the same grinding style they have played all season, then it’s hard to see the Patriots building much of a lead. Nick Foles has not thrown an interception in the playoffs this year and has shown himself to be adept with ball security. If you see this game coming down to the last drive, then you almost have to pick the Eagles’ side of the spread.
Should you take the Patriots to cover that 4 ½-point Super Bowl LII spread?
In the divisional round of the playoffs, New England made quick work of Tennessee, rolling to an easy 35-17 win. However, the Eagles’ defense is head and shoulders above that of the Titans. Unless Foles falls apart and the Eagles’ defense does as well, I don’t see the Patriots getting close to 35 points in this game. (Of course, I thought much the same about the Vikings, but the Eagles have shown more mental toughness in the postseason to this point).
But what if Rob Gronkowski can play? He definitely gives Brady another option — and he already has many, with Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, with Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead coming out of the backfield. Against Jacksonville, a lot of passes to running backs made the linebackers have to worry more about dump-offs and softened up the middle of the field. I expect to see more of that against Philadelphia.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
I’ve predicted that New England will win this game, 24-23, on a late drive. I just don’t see New England making enough of a dent in the Philadelphia defense to build a big lead. I do see them getting enough down the stretch to take the win and send the Eagles home with a 58-year streak without a league championship — but I don’t see them covering this big of a point spread given the defense they’ll be facing.
