There have been 53 Super Bowls, and the point spread results have been just as about even as possible. Favorites have covered 26 times; underdogs have covered 25 times; there have been two pushes. The odds for Super Bowl LIV comes out immediately after the conference championship games, which means that it has two weeks to fluctuate. This brings an interesting question: should you bet as soon as the point spread comes out, or should you wait and see where the line ends up? Heavy action on one side or the other will pull the spread in that direction, as bookmakers look to limit their exposure. Below you will find our thoughts on this sports betting discussion.
Super Bowl LIV Betting Strategy: Early or Late?
This Super Bowl point spread opened at Kansas City (-1.5) with an over/under total of 51.5 points. The point total has slid up to 53.5 points, but the point spread remains at 1.5 on most books, although some have it as a single point. So over the first four days of betting, action has remained fairly even against the point spread.
This stands in stark contrast with the first two Super Bowls, in which the Green Bay Packers were favored by 14 and 13 ½ points, respectively, and covered with relative ease. The next Super Bowl had the Baltimore Colts favored by 18 over the New York Jets — but the Jets pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, not just covering but winning outright, 16-7.
After the leagues merged after Super Bowl IV, then lines got a lot tighter. The Vikings were favored to beat the Chiefs by 12 points in Super Bowl IV, but the next double-digit line in a Super Bowl did not appear until Super Bowl XIV, in which the Pittsburgh Steelers were favored by 10.5 points over the Los Angeles Rams, a 9-7 wild card team who got hot at just the right time. The Steelers covered in a 12-point win.
So let’s look at the specifics of this game. What would cause the money to turn, now that we are almost a week into the lead-up to Super Bowl LIV, and the line has not really moved at all. Something freakishly unexpected could happen, such as a practice injury to a skill player such as Jimmy Garoppolo or Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps one of the skill players will get caught staying out after curfew (although this is the pros, not college) or will get into some kind of legal trouble and have to miss the game.
All of this is unlikely, of course. The likelier scenario involving a significant change in the point spread would have to do with money coming in big on one side, or the other. A one-point spread basically means that the gambling community views this game as almost a virtual push.
If you’re going to bet early, get on the right side of the point total in this case. You could have taken the “over” at 51.5 points, but now it has inched up two points. On the other hand, last year’s Super Bowl was a real “under” as the New England Patriots absolutely bottled up the Los Angeles Rams, holding them to just a field goal. San Francisco has a stout defense, but it would have to mount a mighty effort to keep the Chiefs that low. I still like the “over,” but I would get on it before it climbs any higher.
As far as general advice goes, take a look at the opening spread for any game. Does it make sense? If not, it will likely shift as the action moves along. So don’t feel pressure to hop on right away, but if the line feels unbalanced, then take advantage — if the imbalance goes the way you want it to. If it goes the other way, don’t feel any hesitation about waiting.
