The point spread for Super Bowl LIV has held at 1 ½ points after opening at just a single point, with the Kansas City Chiefs sitting as a slight favorite over the San Francisco 49ers. This marks the second year in a row that the point spread has been less than a field goal — which means that the point spread is not really meaningful; the sports betting decision basically involves choosing which team is going to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy.
In cases like this, it can be smarter to follow the moneyline instead of the point spread, because the likelihood is that the winner would also cover the spread. In that case, you might as well take advantage of the even spread that comes with a moneyline pick. Take a look at our NFL Betting suggestion for your pick against the moneyline.
Super Bowl LIV Moneyline Betting Pick
Best believe this is our moment‼️ pic.twitter.com/sDNAyHn2DV
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 29, 2020
- When: Sunday, February 2nd, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
- TV: NBC
- Radio: SiriusXM
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- 49ers vs Chiefs Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -2 (Total 55)
About Moneylines for Super Bowl LIV
If you do not know how moneylines work, if you look at the line for the Super Bowl, you would have to bet $117 on the Chiefs to win $100 (and walk away with $217 total). To bet on the 49ers, you would need to put down $103 to win $100 (and walk away with $203 total). The fact that both moneylines are negative shows just how close the matchup is considered by the books. In many cases, the underdog would have a plus moneyline (+150, for example). In that case, you would need to bet $100 to win $150 (and walk away with $250).About point spread, this is the closest line since Super Bowl XLIX, when the New England Patriots edged the Seattle Seahawks in some last-minute drama. The two teams are seen as close this year because of the relative ease with which they have moved through the postseason.
About the Numbers
It is true that Kansas City fell behind Houston, 24-0, and Tennessee, 10-0, but they came back to win those two games by a combined 31 points. In their win over the Texans, Kansas City outscored Houston 51-7 after falling in that hole. Against Tennessee, Kansas City held Derrick Henry, who had approached the 200-yard mark in the Titans’ wild card and divisional round wins, to just 69 yards on 19 attempts.San Francisco also rolled in the postseason, allowing just 30 points to Minnesota and Green Bay combined in the divisional round and the NFC Championship. The 49ers forced a total of five turnovers in those games. Against the Packers, they used a misdirection running game to make Green Bay look just silly, as Raheem Mostert ran for 220 yards.
Why Bet on the Chiefs for Super Bowl LIV?
I’ve picked the Chiefs to win this game on a late drive, which means that I don’t see the spread finishing at more than four or five — definitely no more than seven, in case the game is tied before that drive. I’ve detailed this pick in a couple of other articles on this site, but I’ll explain the logic again here briefly.My argument begins with the battle between the two quarterbacks. There is no signal-caller in the league right now that has the combination of skills that Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes has shown.
With respect to avoiding the rush, throwing on the run, fitting the ball into tight windows, hitting deep balls and using his eyes to look defenders off his targets, he has no peer right now in the game — at least at his age level. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers also have those skills, but their games have declined with age — and they are out of the postseason.
Jimmy Garoppolo has also shown signs of greatness this season. He went toe to toe with Drew Brees and won in New Orleans, leading the 49ers to a 48-46 win courtesy of a last-second field goal. He threw for 349 yards and four scores, showing that he can lead his team through a track meet.
However, the Chiefs have a better pass rush and a better secondary than the Saints do — and Mahomes is better than Brees right now. Given this battle of quarterbacks, even with San Francisco’s intimidating defense, I’m still taking the Chiefs against this moneyline.
