We’re just over a week away from Super Bowl LIV, which will be historic no matter which team wins it. The Kansas City Chiefs are looking for their first title in 50 years — in their first Super Bowl appearance since Super Bowl IV. The San Francisco 49ers are looking for their sixth title as a franchise, which would move them into elite company. One of the more popular props in the sports betting community involves picking the game’s Most Valuable Player. The two favorites are the two quarterbacks, which makes sense given the fact that quarterbacks are chosen the most often. We have the odds to win the Super Bowl LIV MVP, as well as thoughts about smart picks for you to put on your wager card.
Super Bowl LIV MVP Odds and Pick
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Player Odds to Win the Super Bowl LIV MVP
- Patrick Mahomes +110
- Jimmy Garoppolo +200
- Raheem Mostert +500
- Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce +1600
- George Kittle +2000
- Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman, Tevin Coleman +3300
- Sammy Watkins +4000
- Tyrann Mathieu, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel +5000
- Frank Clark +6000
- Arik Armstead +6500
- Matt Breida, Emmanuel Sanders, Richard Sherman +6600
Why is the quarterback the favorite?
Well, the only multiple award winners are all quarterbacks. Tom Brady has four MVP trophies from Super Bowls. Joe Montana has three; Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw and Eli Manning each have two. Of the 53 Super Bowls, there have been 54 MVPs, as Super Bowl XII saw the MVP go to two defensive players. Twenty-nine have seen the MVP award go to a quarterback. Seven have gone to running backs; seven have gone to wide receivers. That makes 43 of 54 going to offensive players. None have gone to tight ends, but we’ll get to Kelce and Kittle in a minute.
Why is Patrick Mahomes favored over Jimmy Garoppolo?
Well, the Chiefs are slight favorites (one point at the opening line) to win the game, and if the Chiefs win, it makes sense that Mahomes would take the MVP, because so much of the offense goes through him. The Chiefs can run the ball as well, but Mahomes makes up a big part of the running game. He ran for 106 yards in the divisional playoff and the AFC Championship combined. Damien Williams can carry the ball, but he is used more in the passing game.
What if the 49ers win?
Jimmy Garoppolo would be the most likely candidate, at least historically, but he hardly played a factor in the NFC Championship. He was the first quarterback to win a playoff game while attempting fewer than ten passes since 2000 — and when Mark Brunell did it back then, he came out of the game in the second quarter as his team was already up 38-0, while Garoppolo played the whole game.
The offense was all about Raheem Mostert, who ran for 220 yards against Green Bay. A run-heavy performance in a San Francisco win would likely send the trophy to Mostert; given how susceptible the Kansas City defense is to the run, a bet on Mostert isn’t a bad one. It is important to remember, though, that Derrick Henry, who had approached the 200-yard mark in the Titans’ wild card and divisional round wins, did not get close to it against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
Who Else is Favorite?
The next two co-favorites are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Kelce is a tight end; no tight end has ever won a Super Bowl MVP. Kelce led the Chiefs in catches in 2019 — but if he dominates the game with a ton of catches, the guy who threw him the ball — Mahomes — is more likely to get the MVP nod. Why? Because it’s unlikely that Kelce would have such a huge game, while the likes of Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman would not.
Next on the list is George Kittle, the 49ers’ right end. Sure, Kittle could have a huge game, like the one he had against New Orleans. However, you don’t get an MVP on the basis of one play, even though you can go viral (as Kittle did for his catch-and-run that took a whole crew of Saints to tackle him).
The defensive players with the best odds are Kansas City’s Tyrann Mathieu and San Francisco’s Nick Bosa. While only 11 defensive players have won MVP awards, two of the last six have: Seattle’s Malcolm Smith and Denver’s Von Miller. However, both of those came in games where the defense put up such stalwart efforts as to dominate the game. I don’t see either defense in this game having that kind of edge, given the strength of the Kansas City offense and the flaws in the Kansas City defense.
