Some of the early Super Bowls featured immense point spreads. The Green Bay Packers were favored to beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points — and they won by 25. That was the tail end of the glory years of the Green Bay franchise, and the NFL was seen as a superior league to the AFL. The Packers were favored by 13.5 points the next year over the Oakland Raiders, and they won by 19.
There was talk that the AFL would soon fade away because of a lack of competitiveness, which the point spread for Super Bowl III showed.
Baltimore was favored by 18 points, but New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath famously guaranteed a victory, and he and his team delivered. Super Bowl IV had another double-digit point spread with the NFL team as the underdog, but the Minnesota Vikings fell to Kansas City, and then the leagues merged. After the merger, it would be 10 seasons before another double-digit point spread; the Pittsburgh Steelers were 10.5-point favorites over the wild card Los Angeles Rams.
This year, the point spread is just 1.5 points. Can the Kansas City Chiefs cover as slight favorites? Or will the 49ers pull off the upset? We have NFL Betting thoughts about wagering on the point spread for this matchup.
Super Bowl LIV Point Spread Betting Pick
🎥We all share the same vision.@KeianaMartinTV catches up with Kyle Shanahan in Miami pic.twitter.com/aHcLjI3gFf
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 29, 2020
- When: Sunday, February 2nd, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
- TV: NBC
- Radio: SiriusXM
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Current Super Bowl LIV Point Spread
- Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Super Bowl XLIX was the last NFL title game with a point spread this low; New England was favored by one point and ended up winning the game, but it took an amazing interception by Malcolm Butler to pull it off. This was yet another example of what some consider New England luck, as the Seattle Seahawks had run right over the Patriot defense in that final drive. All Russell Wilson had to do, it seemed, was turn and hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch one more time, and the Seahawks would have a title. Instead, Wilson threw a slant, Butler made the pick, and the Patriots ran out the clock.
The point spread is close this year, in large part, because Kansas City and San Francisco have marched so easily to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs won the divisional round game by 20 (after trailing by 24, becoming the first playoff team ever to trail by 20+ points and win by 20+ points in NFL history), and they won the AFC Championship by 11 points after trailing by 10 points on two different occasions.
The Niners Case for Super Bowl LIV
The San Francisco 49ers shut down a prolific Minnesota offense — and ran through a Viking defense that had frustrated the New Orleans Saints, a team known for their offensive prowess. Then they humiliated the Green Bay Packers, running the ball over and over for big gains, as the Packers seemed to have no idea what was coming.Jimmy Garoppolo attempted only eight passes — the first time a playoff-winning quarterback had attempted that few since 2000. So with two elite contenders coming together, it is hard to decide which team has the edge — which gives us this slender point spread.
Final Super Bowl LIV Analysis & Prediction
In a game with a point spread like this, the spread is so small that it really does not lend an advantage to the bettor. I wrote another article describing the comparative edge that would come with betting on the moneyline for this game, but for those who enjoy wagering against the point spread, here are my thoughts for your wagering choices.A lot of people think that the San Francisco defense will shut down Kansas City. They have a front four that could be the best in the NFL at rushing the passer — and clogging the holes for the running game.
However, the 49ers did not shut down New Orleans when the first teams met, and Drew Brees might be the best quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes that the 49ers saw this season. San Francisco struggled against Arizona not once, but twice, and they almost let their Week 17 game against Seattle get away, which would have sent them to the fifth seed.
The Cardinals and the Seahawks have a young, mobile quarterback with a cannon for an arm, and Mahomes is, right now, head and shoulders above the other two. For those reasons, I see him taking charge and delivering a win (and cover).
