No month on the NFL calendar is more of a pressure cooker than December. This is the time of year when the real contenders will pull away from the other teams that have gathered on the edges of the playoff races. This year, we will have two more playoff teams than we have had in past years, with the field expanding from 12 to 14, and with just one team in each conference earning a bye through wild card week.
As you think about futures wagers as part of your NFL betting, let’s look at some teams that look like the real deal — and which teams are likely to fall by the wayside.
NFL News: Updated Super Bowl LV Pretenders & Contenders
Contender: Kansas City Chiefs
In December and January, the Kansas City Chiefs are 23-4 in regular-season games since 2015. Over that stretch, they have advanced to two AFC Championships, losing one in overtime and then winning it last year, moving on to Super Bowl LIV, where they picked up the team’s first championship in 50 years. I talk a lot in this space about how the Chiefs live on the edge, and while it occasionally comes back to bite them, as in their loss to Las Vegas earlier this season, so more often than not, they have prevailed. Last year, they became the first team ever to trail by at least ten points in three playoff games in the same season — and then win all of those games. When you have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, it seems that a touchdown is possible on any drive, even when you’re in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter. That takes a psychological toll on opposing defenses.
Pretender: Cleveland Browns
Don’t get me wrong — the Browns have taken huge steps and are now competitive week in and week out. They can even play transcendent football at times, as in the first half of emphatic wins over Dallas and Tennessee. Against Baltimore, though, despite 343 yards and three combined touchdowns out of Baker Mayfield, the Browns’ defense could not find a solution for Lamar Jackson, who has shown more and more flaws this season. Kicker Cody Parkey missed four different kicks. You need a clutch defense and a clutch kicker when the klieg lights are bright, and it looks like the Browns, who seem like they’re headed to the postseason, need a few more pieces (or at least a better defensive scheme and perhaps a new kicker) to take the next step to contender status.
Contender: Los Angeles Rams
You don’t always have to have an elite gunslinger at quarterback to carry your team to a Super Bowl title. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles, who won a title with a backup quarterback (Nick Foles) leading them down the stretch despite the fact that he has been unable to replicate that success anywhere else. Sometimes all you need is the right system, built around the strengths of that quarterback — and around his weaknesses. The Rams have that sort of system, at least most of the time. Jared Goff had an 18:11 TD:INT ratio going into last weekend, but his interceptions have come when pass protection has broken down. When he has time in the pocket, or when he works to his check-down options, then he fares much better. The Rams also have a stout enough defense to take the burden of putting up 30 points a game off Goff’s shoulders.
Pretender: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders’ defense has fallen apart — to the point where Jon Gruden fired his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, after a 44-27 loss to Indianapolis. The Colts do not have a high-octane offense, so giving up 44 points was a humiliation. It’s odd to fire a coordinator with three weeks left in a season, even more so when you only have three days until your next game. The Raiders also lost on Thursday, 30-27, to the Los Angeles Chargers. New defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, who got reasonable reviews for his work in Dallas, was not able to solve all of the problems as the Raiders could not stop the Chargers, not even from scoring a touchdown to complete an overtime comeback.
