Back in late January 2022, when Super Bowl LVII odds dropped, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites, as DraftKings posted +700 odds and other sports betting outlets followed suit. They slid down the list a bit after trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, but when the Chiefs started 5-1, they vaulted back up to favorite status. A loss to the Bills gave them a momentary dip, but then they finished 10-1, with their only loss down the stretch coming in Cincinnati, and beating Jacksonville and Cincinnati in the playoffs has them at +106 on the moneyline, slight underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Should the Chiefs be underdogs here? Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl betting analysis for Kansas.
NFL News: The Kansas City Chiefs’ Odds of Winning Super Bowl LVII
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Since 2021, Kansas City is 10-0 straight up against NFC opponents. Of course, the last time they appeared in a Super Bowl, they were demolished by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they had an offensive line made up mostly of reserves because of a rash of injuries.
Since 2021, Kansas City is 4-1 in playoff games straight up. The only loss came at home in the AFC Championship last year, when Cincinnati overcame an 18-point deficit to win in overtime by three. That seems to have served to motivate the Chiefs all season long – including in this year’s revenge win over the Bengals.
However…since 2021, Kansas City is 12-16-1 against the spread after a straight-up win. The Chiefs are 2 ½-point underdogs right now for the Super Bowl, making this an ominous number.
Also…Kansas City games have gone under the point total 11 out of 15 times coming after a win.
→ Can the Chiefs overcome adversity once again?
During the AFC Championship, the Chiefs lost three wide receivers to injury – Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smit-Scuster and Kadarius Toney. The defense lost cornerback >’Jarius Sneed and linebacker William Gay. Tailback Isiah Pacheco looked like he had a lower leg injury in the late moments of the game. The Chiefs were able to overcome these problems and win – aided by a pair of Joe Burrow interceptions, a late scramble by Patrick Mahomes – and a borderline unnecessary roughness penalty that handed the Chiefs an easy field goal try in the last seconds of regulation.
Everyone has two weeks to heal, of course, with the bye week ahead of the Super Bowl. How much healing can Mahomes’ high ankle sprain in his right foot (the one he has to plant on to throw) accomplish during this time? With his scrambling limited, the Chiefs’ running game becomes very easy for opposing defenses to account for, even with the talent that Pacheco represents. This means that pass protection will be a premium in the Super Bowl. During the season, Mahomes took the third-fewest sacks (26), and the KC O-line was fifth in adjusted sack rate (4.8%).
Also, the Chiefs permitted 123 rushing yards per game (5.3 yards per attempt) during their last three playoff games before the AFC Championship. They did limit Cincinnati to 71 yards on the ground, but the Bengals had three reserves starting on their offensive line, and the Chiefs also had a hard time containing Burrow in the pocket.
If you like Kansas City, you are no doubt pointing out that the Eagles have not had to play any elite teams this season. They posted a 14-3 record, but they only played six games against playoff contenders. They won five of those six games (the Giants twice, Dallas once, Minnesota, Jacksonville), losing the second time to Dallas (but having to play with Gardner Minshew at quarterback). Kansas City, on the other hand, played Buffalo, Cincinnati, and San Francisco during the regular season, going 1-2 in those matchups but routing the 49ers by 21 on the road. They also got revenge over Cincinnati in the AFC Championship. You are also likely to point out that the Chiefs’ core has played in two of the last three Super Bowls, while the Eagles have basically recycled their coaching staff and roster since their win in Super Bowl LII.
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