The top seeds in each conference held serve in the playoffs, winning the divisional and conference championships to advance to Super Bowl LVII in Arizona. The Philadelphia Eagles routed the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship, 38-7, but they had the benefit of facing a 49ers team that had no quarterback. Brock Purdy suffered a complete UCL tear in his throwing elbow in the early going, and backup Josh Johnson got a concussion, leaving the 49ers to choose between Christian McCaffrey running the Wildcat offense and Purdy simply handing the ball off, unable to throw. The Kansas City Chiefs ended a three-game losing streak against the Cincinnati Bengals, winning, 23-20, although their win was aided by some crucial missed calls by the officials, including a block in the back on a late kick return, as well as by a borderline unnecessary roughness penalty that gave the Chiefs an easy game-winning field goal. Even though the Chiefs had the creakier win, they should still be able to beat the Eagles. Why should you choose them with your Super Bowl betting? Read on to find out.
NFL News: Why Kansas City Will Win the Super Bowl
→ Patrick Mahomes
When Mahomes is at quarterback, the Chiefs feel like they can win every time. His postseason record is now 10-3 after beating Cincinnati, and he led the Chiefs to a league-best 28.2 points per game and 6.4 yards per play during the regular season, so they feel like they can move the ball, no matter which defense they are facing. Philadelphia’s defense did lead the NFL in takeaways for a lot of the regular season, but the turnovers stopped in the last few weeks.
→ Philadelphia’s defense is mellowing
They did pick up three fumbles against San Francisco, but that was their first game in the last eight in which they had generated more than one takeaway. It’s not like they’ve been facing elite offensive competition; when they faced Dallas on Christmas Eve, Dak Prescott threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-34 win. That’s the same Dallas offense that San Francisco was able to hold to 12 points in the divisional playoff.
→ Chris Jones
The Chiefs’ star defensive tackle is just the leader of a ferocious pass rush that logged 55 sacks on the season. The only team that got more sacks…was the Philadelphia Eagles. It is true that the Chiefs permitted touchdowns on 67.3% of opponent red zone trips (31st in the NFL), and it is also true that Philadelphia scored on 67.8% of their red zone trips (3rd), but we saw what can happen when the Chiefs’ defense can get penetration against the running game andn to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. Jones led all NFL defensive tackles with a 21.5% pass rush win rate, even though he was double-teamed 69.2% of the time, and he ended up fourth in the league with 15 ½ sacks before adding a pair against Cincinnati.
→ But what about the injuries?
We saw Patrick Mahomes limp through the AFC Championship, but he made just enough plays for the team to be in position to win at the end. It helped that the defense got two interceptions from Joe Burrow, but now Mahomes has two weeks to rest and treat that ankle. He should be in a better place to evade the rush and even to scramble in the Super Bowl than he was in the AFC Championship. Kansas City’s offensive line led the league with a 74.7% pass block win rate, and they will need to perform at an elite level again. The injuries to the wide receiver group might be more of a problem, as Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney all had to leave the game, putting the burden on Travis Kelce and Marques Valdes-Scantling to make plays down the field. On defense, linebacker Willie Gay and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed also had to leave the game. Their return will be important for the Chiefs as well.
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