With Super Bowl LVIII just two days away, the most commonly offered point total is 47 ½. That means that you can wager that the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will combine to score more or less than that total (over or under). Last year’s total was 51 ½ points, and the wave of scoring easily beat that total as the Chiefs won, 38-35, producing 73 total points, ending a four-Super Bowl streak for the “under.” In the first 57 Super Bowls, the “over” and the “under” have each hit 28 times (as the first NFL-AFL Championship, as the game was called in its first two iterations, did not offer a point total prop). Let’s consider how to approach this prop in your NFL betting for Sunday’s showdown.
NFL Betting Analysis: Super Bowl LVIII Final Over/Under Picks
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
In their last eight games in which all of the starters played, the Chiefs have only scored more than 25 points twice. In their current five-game winning streak (which includes a 13-12 win over the Chargers that saw the key starters on the bench), they have scored 25, 13, 26, 27, and 17 points. We have drives ending in field goals rather than touchdowns, and we have long, grinding drives that feature the running game heavily, with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire wearing down the opposition. This isn’t your usual high-flying Kansas City offense. When they do score, they tend to do it early thanks to scripted drives, and then they let their defense go to work and protect the lead. In the fourth quarter of the divisional win over Buffalo and the AFC Championship win over Baltimore, the Chiefs didn’t score at all.
What about the 49ers? On Christmas, they managed 19 points against Baltimore. They scored 27 against a Washington team that was not at all interested in competing in that game. They needed a late comeback to beat a Green Bay team not known for its defense, and they needed Dan Campbell to gamble the Lions out of an NFC Championship win (and the Lions’ secondary to live down to its reputation) to get to the Super Bowl. However, the 49ers’ defense has been getting more generous as the season goes by. Will they clamp down? I think so, and a game featuring a good number of three-and-outs and making the long drives grinding ones will keep the points down. Take the under.
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
What about some individual player over/under picks? Let’s look at Brandon Aiyuk’s longest reception (24.5 yards). The Chiefs generally like two-high safety coverage formations. Sometimes they do go to single-high coverage and then use Cover-1 (about 20% of the time). Because the 49ers love to run the ball, expect the Chiefs to go single-high more often and send the other safety into the box to help challenge the run. When the 49ers see Cover-1, Aiyuk gets a 35% target share, and his average catch is 20.5 yards. About a third of his catches in these situations produce 25 or more yards. So this is an over that could offer solid value, especially given Aiyuk’s ability to add yards after the catch. Take the over.
Let’s also look at Brock Purdy’s passing yards in the first quarter (54.5). The 49ers love to run the ball, and they should have some success early on the ground. Purdy did start slowly in both of the 49ers’ playoff games, so Kyle Shanahan might look to add some easy passes early to help his rhythm get going. In 11 of 18 games this season, Purdy has 55 or more passing yards in the first quarter. Two of those 18 games saw him pass for 52 yards. However, the Chiefs’ defense has been more stifling than Green Bay’s, and the Lions’ defense shut Purdy down for much of the first half. Take the under.
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