Most NFL games come with a wide variety of sports betting options. There are the basics – point spread or moneyline for the outcome, the score staying under or going over a particular point total, and prop bets on individual performances. With a major event like the Super Bowl LVIII, the props get more creative. Will the coin toss result in heads or tails? How long will the national anthem performance last? Which song(s) will the halftime act(s) perform – or not perform? What color will the Gatorade bath for the winning coach be? Let’s look at which Super Bowl props make the most – and the least – sense for bettors.
NFL Betting Analysis: Best and Worst Super Bowl Prop Bets
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Who will score the first touchdown?
Would you believe that this is often the most-bet prop in Super Bowl wagering? The quarterbacks are frequently popular bets, even though scrambling isn’t that frequent a score. Four years ago, Patrick Mahomes paid off on +2100 odds when he scored the first touchdown of the game, causing some damage for the books. For Super Bowl LVIII, the favorite is San Francisco tailback Christian McCaffrey (+350), with Kansas City tailback Isiah Pacheco right behind him (+550). Mahomes is +2200, and his counterpart, Brock Purdy, is +4000. Travis Kelce makes an interesting choice as often as he finds himself on the receiving end of touchdowns, and the Chiefs do a better job with those early scripted drives than the 49ers do. Good prop.
Heads or tails?
Obviously, this is literally a 50-50 proposition. To make sure the books profit, you’ll likely get -105 odds for each side (betting $105 to win $100. For Super Bowl LVII, “tails” got 51 percent of the bets. There’s no research that you can do to prepare for this – it’s simple chance. If you’re one of those bettors who likes to set yourself up for wins, then stay away from this one. Bad prop.
| Super Bowl LVIII Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
Anytime touchdown scorer
If you take this prop, you’re betting that the player you choose will score a touchdown at some point in the game. Most books are offering up to 29 players in this market, with Christian McCaffrey (-210) as the favorite. The longest shot is 49ers tight end Brayden Willis at +2800; he went the whole season without a catch. If you want to pick either team’s defense or special teams to score, that prop is +600 for each team. You can even bet that no touchdowns will be scored (+20000). Given the offensive firepower for both teams, that last option is definitely a moon shot. If you do some research and find who’s been scoring the most touchdowns, you should be able to find an option, such as Kelce or Rashee Rice or Brandon Aiyuk, who offers more value than McCaffrey but has a great shot at finding the end zone. Good prop.
Which song will Usher play first at halftime?
“Yeah” and “My Way” are the co-favorites, offering +225 odds. Some performers start with a big hit, while others start with a B-side before moving to more familiar music. Like the coin toss, this one is out of your hands completely in terms of research and preparation. Some states don’t allow this type of prop because it has nothing to do with the outcome of the game – and someone already knows the answer, as Usher has likely been rehearsing this set for some time. Bad prop.
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Super Bowl LVII Betting Props: Best and Worst
NFL Betting: The Best and Worst Super Bowl Betting Props
Sports betting and the Super Bowl make up a significant industry. In the United States alone, a record 50.4 million adults are projected to make a total of $16 billion in bets on the NFL’s championship game. That’s about 1 in every 5 American adults, and these estimates include bets that are legal as well as those placed illegally or just casually with family and friends. This is more than double the betting total from last year, thanks in large part to the growth in the legal sports betting market in the United States. Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst props that you can choose for your Super Bowl wagering.
Worst Prop: The Pregame Coin Flip
There are some people who enjoy wagers that are all about pure chance, and if you’re one of those people, then you probably disagree with me about this being a “bad” prop. With a coin flip, there is no research involved, and there is no way to leverage knowledge and insight into making money. It’s pure risk – which means adrenaline for some. You will likely have to put down $104 to win $100 here (because the books want their vigorish), no matter which side of the coin you choose.
Best Prop: Which player will win the Super Bowl MVP?
More often than not, the winner of this trophy is the quarterback of the victorious team. This makes sense, given how involved the quarterback is in the offense. Last year’s winner, though, was a wide receiver – the Rams’ Cooper Kupp, because of the dominant role he played for the winning offense. When Kupp went down to injury during the 2022 season, that was the last nail in the coffin holding the Rams’ postseason chances (even with the team’s importation of Baker Mayfield at quarterback). He is a player the Rams need to score. Is there someone like this in the Super Bowl this year? Both teams have one – the Eagles have wide receiver A.J. Brown, who personally torched the Tennessee Titans during the season and put up huge numbers all seasons long, and the Chiefs have tight end Travis Kelce, who has made a habit out of multi-touchdown games and would be the first tight end ever to win a Super Bowl MVP.
Worst Prop: How long will the performance of the national anthem last?
Betting opened on this prop (going over or under a certain amount of time) at Super Bowl XLIV, when Billy Joel went under the total time. Since that time, the national anthem has received 15 performances with an average length of 1:43. Last year’s performer was country music star Mickey Guyton, who went over the total (which was 1:50). The longest performance of the 15 was 2:36, by Alicia Keys at Super Bowl XLVII. This year, country music star Chris Stapleton will perform the anthem, and at this writing, the most common over/under time for his performance is 2:02. Country music stars tend to like to roll the vibrato out there and modulate their pitches, so it would make sense to say he would go well over that average time of 1:43. Right now, you can get more value on the under than you can the over, but once again, this isn’t really a betting question that you can properly research and leverage.
Best Prop: Miles Sanders over 54.5 rushing yards
Sanders ran for 1,269 yards on 259 carries (4.9 yards per attempt). In the postseason, he has 132 yards in two games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. In all 19 games (regular season and playoffs combined), he is averaging 73 yards per game. He has an elite offensive line ahead of him, anchored by Mark Kelce and Lane Johnson, and the Chiefs were eighth against the run in 2022, permitting 107.3 yards on the ground per game.
