Two quarterbacks with two different reputations have advanced to Super Bowl LVIII, set for Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11. Kansas City’s quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has been the Chiefs’ starter for six seasons – and each season, he has led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship. He will play in his fourth Super Bowl. Before entering the NFL, he starred at Texas Tech, leading a prolific offense under Kliff Kingsbury. San Francisco’s offense is led by Brock Purdy, the last player drafted in 2022. At Iowa State, Purdy put up respectable numbers but nothing like Mahomes’ productivity. He started the 2022 season as the third-string quarterback, but injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo left him as the starter, and he took advantage of the opportunity, leading the 49ers to the NFC Championship. Going into the Super Bowl, let’s look at some quarterback props to include in your NFL betting.
NFL Betting Analysis: Super Bowl 58 Quarterback Prop Bets
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-135)
Mahomes has four touchdown passes in three playoff games this year, with a 68.0% pass completion rate. Those numbers are down from 2022 (7 TD, 72.0% completion rate) and 2021 (11 TD, 73.0% completion rate). However, he has thrown two or more touchdown passes in two of the three Super Bowls in which he has appeared. Also, this year’s Super Bowl is in a controlled-climate stadium. All three of the Chiefs’ playoff games this year have taken place in cold conditions, including near-zero temperatures in the wild-card win over Miami. The 49ers have allowed 52 points in two playoff games to offenses less prolific than Kansas City’s, making this a reasonable “over.”
Patrick Mahomes without an interception (+100)
It’s been over two years since Mahomes’ last interception in the playoffs; Von Bell of the Cincinnati Bengals was the last player to swipe a Mahomes pass in the postseason. Against Detroit, the 49ers did not have any interceptions. The Chiefs don’t have Tyreek Hill running deep routes; instead, the big deep threat is Marques Valdes-Scantling, who gets fewer targets than Hill did. I expect Mahomes to take a more conservative approach, and find Rashee Rice on the corners and Travis Kelce over the middle. With a more precise approach, the likelihood of interceptions drops even further.
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +2 | +105 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco | -2 | -125 | O 47.5 |
Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mahomes ran for 44 yards in last year’s Super Bowl despite limping around on a nagging ankle injury. He ran for 41 yards against Miami but didn’t break 20 yards against either Buffalo or Baltimore. Can the 49ers get a pass rush going after Mahomes? It’s likely, and as elusive as he is, it’s easy to see him getting several key scrambles for first downs.
Brock Purdy UNDER 245.5 passing yards (-110)
Brock Purdy will face a miserly Kansas City defense. While Purdy likes the deep ball, the Kansas City secondary has solid coverage against deep plays. They were second in the NFL in sacks (57) and pressure rate (27.8%). Lamar Jackson did throw for 272 yards in the AFC Championship, but neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Josh Allen was able to break 200 yards in their playoff games against the Chiefs.
Brock Purdy OVER 11.5 rushing yards (-110)
Purdy ran for 48 yards on five attempts against Detroit last week. When the 49ers have needed him to tuck the ball under and run for it, he has. He ran for 14 yards on six carries against Green Bay and ran for 57 yards in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs allowed 20.1 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, the 10th worst average in the NFL. A strong pass rush could flush Purdy out – and get his rushing yardage up.
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Super Bowl 58 Quarterback
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