If your sports betting plans for this coming weekend include the Super Bowl, you are joining a pastime that millions and millions of others enjoy each year. Over the last five years, American sports books have reported an average of $146.6 million in wagers each year – and that’s just the number of dollars that were bet legally. The Los Angeles Rams opened as 3 ½-point favorites for Sunday’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. The line moved almost immediately to four points, but you can still find between 3 ½ and 4 ½ points, depending on the book you choose. A myriad of other prop bets emerged as well.
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NFL News: Super Bowl Strategy — Picking Winning Bets
Keep a Close Eye on your Bankroll
With most football games, the side props get a lot less action that the main wagers – point spread, moneyline, point total. However, there are all kinds of prop bets that you can place with respect to the Super Bowl. If you’re wondering how much to wager in each case, set up a bankroll to start. This is the amount that you can afford to bet on the game in total. Remember – if you might need the money to pay your utility bill, your mortgage, your car payment or another obligation, it’s not part of your bankroll. Only bet responsibly, with money that you genuinely do not need for any other obligation.
Let’s say that you have $5,000 in your bankroll to bet. Then decide that you will only commit about five percent max to each bet. This lets you spread around your exposure. You might object that people place huge bets just on the outcome. These people have the money to lose – or they have put together hedging schemes, as is the case with “Mattress Mack,” who advertised that he would refund all mattress and recliner purchases if Cincinnati wins – and then bet $4.53 million on the Bengals, so either way, his losses are “covered” – on one side by the bet, and on the other (hopefully) by increased revenue due to his promotion. So with your $5,000 bankroll, you would think about putting down $150 to $250 on each of your wager.
Think about the Point Spread
You might think that there is not a lot of difference between a 3 ½-point spread and a 4 ½-point spread. If the teams are tied and one kicks a field goal, that wouldn’t make a difference with a spread larger than three. However, if a team is up three and the other team comes down, scores a touchdown, kicks the extra point and ends up winning by four, then that shift made a significant difference indeed, if it’s the favorite that ended up winning. In the case of a 4 ½-point spread, of course, neither outcome would let the favorite cover, but if you went with the 3 ½-point spread and took the favorite, and the favorite won, then that made sense.
Check Out Multiple Books
This is particularly important if you’re looking at wagers beyond the point spread. On a lot of the over/under props, you will notice vigs that are significantly different. You might see a passing yardage total for Joe Burrow of 263.5 on multiple books, but when you look at the moneyline for taking the under, you might see that one book has -122 and another book has -110. That is significant; in the first case, you had to put $122 at risk to win $100, and in the second, you just had to risk $110. That might seem like a small difference, but it’s greater than 10%. Why put more of your bankroll in the hands of a sports book than you have to?
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