In an NFL driven by concerns for parity, the sports betting often features tight spreads. There are exceptions, of course – on October 13, 2013, the Jacksonville Jaguars entered their game against the Denver Broncos as 26 ½-point underdogs. Even in Super Bowls, which supposedly pit the league’s two top teams against each other, point spreads can be sizable. The largest on record was for Super Bowl XXIX, when San Francisco came in as 18 ½-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers – and ended up covering in a 49-26 demolition. No point spread for a Super Bowl has ben larger than five points since 2009, when Pittsburgh was a seven-point favorite over Arizona. This year, San Francisco opened as 2 ½-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs, and the line has moved to -2 and even -1 ½ on some books. But should you bet with the point spread or straight up on the moneyline? Read on to get our insights.
NFL Betting Analysis: Should You Bet Straight Up or Against the Spread for Super Bowl 58?
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Current Super Bowl Odds:
Against the Spread: San Francisco -2
Moneyline: San Francisco -130 / Kansas City +110
How do moneyline bets work?
You pick the team that you think will win the game. The margin of victory doesn’t matter. You’ll notice that the teams have two different moneyline numbers. This reflects the fact that the 49ers are favored to win. Because the 49ers have to win by more than two points to cover the spread, just choosing them to win won’t provide the same even value.
When you look at moneyline odds, here’s how they work. If you think the 49ers will win straight up, you would bet on them at -128. In other words, you would need to wager $128 to win $100 and receive a total of $228 back (your original bet plus your winnings). If you want to win $50, then you would need to risk $64.
The underdog in a matchup is listed with a + sign at the start of their moneyline. Here, the Chiefs are on offer at +108. If you bet $100 on Kansas City to win, your winnings would be $108, so you would receive a total of $208 back. Do you want to win $50? Then you would need to risk $54.
The larger the point spread, the larger the gap will be between the two numbers. If the point spread on a game is listed as pick’em (or PK), you generally won’t see the teams listed at +100, because the sportsbook needs to make some vigorish, or “vig” to make a profit, so it’s not uncommon to see both teams listed at -105 (betting $105 to win $100 and receive a total of $205).
| Super Bowl 58 Picks Odds Subject to Change |
SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +2 | +110 | U 47.5 |
| San Francisco | -2 | -130 | O 47.5 |
How should you bet on this matchup?
This really depends on whether you think the favorite or the underdog will win, and by how much. If you like the Chiefs to win the game, then you should pick them on the moneyline instead of taking them to cover their end of the point spread. Why? Because when you bet on the point spread, you’re often betting on a -105 basis ($105 to win $100), no matter which side you take, so the books can make a profit. If you like the Chiefs, you get slightly better value, winning $108 on a $100 wager instead of winning $100 on a $105 wager. Obviously, the larger your wager, the larger the differential in value.
What if you think the 49ers are going to win? If you think they’ll win by a field goal or more, you should take them against the current spread (-2). That way you’re wagering $105 to win $100 instead of $128 to win $100. Your return on investment is higher, and frankly, the likelihood of a win by one or two is fairly small, so you might as well slide up and give the points.
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