Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots vs. Seahawks NFL Betting Analysis

As we get ready for some Super Bowl action, it is time to take a quick look to the NFL betting odds and check some of the game insights on the two teams taking part in the game. The New England Patriots defeated the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game 45-7 on Sunday, earning a trip to Super Bowl XLIX. It will be the Patriots’ sixth appearance in the NFL Championship game since Bill Belichick took over as the head coach in 2000, which will give him another opportunity to tie Chuck Knoll for most Super Bowls wins by a coach. This also gives Tom Brady a chance to tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw for most Super Bowl wins in league’s history.

On the other hand, the Seattle Seahawks made an incredible comeback in the NFC Championship Game, beating the Green Bay Packers and earning a return trip to the Super Bowl. They will be the first team since the Patriots in 2003-2004 to get a chance to defend their Super Bowl and try to become the eighth franchise to win consecutive championships. The Patriots were able to dominate the Colts in the AFC Championship game, because they were able to run the ball effectively, which allowed them to dictate the tempo of the game. LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns in the playoffs last season against the Colts, led the way again with 148 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30 carries. Tom Brady didn’t have to do too much in this game for the Patriots, but finished the game with 226 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Seattle quickly fell behind the Packers in their game, due to early turnovers by Russell Wilson, their defense was able to make the Packers settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, which ended up being the difference maker in a game that was tightly contested at the end. Marshawn Lynch once again proved he was their best player on offense and scored the touchdown that gave the Seahawks the lead late in the fourth quarter. He finished the game with 157 yards and 1 touchdown, on 25 carries.

Betting Preview

The Patriots have lost two Super Bowls in a row (2007 and 2011) mainly because they played a team that could get a lot of pressure from their front four, so they didn’t have to send blitzes at Tom Brady, which allowed them to play good defense against the Patriots offense, and also frustrate Tom Brady the whole game. The Seahawks are a similar team to the Giants in that effect, and will likely use a similar defensive game plan. The Seattle defense has been great during the second half of the season, and played great against the Packers, despite the offensive turnovers. The one weakness they had on Sunday, was stopping the run, and it will be hard for them to win the Super Bowl, if they allow the Patriots to run effectively.

Bill Belichick & Pete Carroll – friends & foes: http://t.co/rPsg7za6hM pic.twitter.com/Idhrtc7dyx — New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 20, 2015

Betting Odds

The initial Super Bowl odds had the Seahawks as 3 point favorites, but due to the convincing manner the Patriots defeated the Colts, a lot of money was wagered on New England, and the line is now even. Betting experts don’t expect the point spread to move more than 1 point in favor of either team prior to the game.

Trends:

• The Over/Under on total points scored is 48.5.
• During the season and playoffs, the Patriots were 10-8 against the spread, and covered 55.6 percent of the time.
• During the season and playoffs, Seattle was 10-7-1 against the spread, and covered 58.8 percent of the time.
• The Seahawks and Patriots have met 16 times in the past, and the series is tied 8-8.

Betting Tip

Since there is no official NFL point spread yet, this comes down to making a choice between the Patriots and the Seahawks, as a general rule, i always go with the better defensive team, so the Seahawks will be the safest bet to pick.